Serie A · Matchday 10
Prediction: US Sassuolo Calcio vs ACF Fiorentina
Monday, 2 November 2026 17:30 UK time
Our AI makes US Sassuolo Calcio the favourite for US Sassuolo Calcio vs ACF Fiorentina, with a 54.4% win probability. Kick-off: Monday, 2 November 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Full AI analysis of US Sassuolo Calcio vs ACF Fiorentina, scheduled for Monday, 2 November 2026. Our algorithm calculated exact probabilities using form, standings, and historical data from both teams.
For US Sassuolo Calcio (8 pts on the board, 13 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. ACF Fiorentina (4 pts, 18) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for US Sassuolo Calcio: Vasilije Adzic (3)
- 🎯 Key scorer for ACF Fiorentina: Franco Mastantuono (3)
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 100% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches
- 🗓️ Matchday 10, Serie A
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
US Sassuolo Calcio
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-23
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-06
- 2026-09-13
- 2026-09-18
⚽ Top scorer : Vasilije Adzic (3)
US Sassuolo Calcio form: 2 wins, 1 draw(s), and 2 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.80) and defensive average (1.80) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 100%.
ACF Fiorentina
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-24
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-05
- 2026-09-11
- 2026-09-20
⚽ Top scorer : Franco Mastantuono (3)
ACF Fiorentina form: 1 wins, 1 draw(s), and 3 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.20) and defensive average (2.40) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 80%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | ACF Fiorentina 0-0 US Sassuolo Calcio | Serie A |
| 2025-12-06 | US Sassuolo Calcio 3-1 ACF Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2024-04-28 | ACF Fiorentina 5-1 US Sassuolo Calcio | Serie A |
| 2024-01-06 | US Sassuolo Calcio 1-0 ACF Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2023-06-02 | US Sassuolo Calcio 1-3 ACF Fiorentina | Serie A |
Our analysis
The table gap between US Sassuolo Calcio (13 place) and ACF Fiorentina (18 place) partly explains our AI's confidence in US Sassuolo Calcio. Expected goals are 2.38 for Sassuolo and 1.49 for Fiorentina, steering the model toward a win for the dominant side. Recent history backs this trend.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 54.4% / 23.7% / 22.0%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 80% of ACF Fiorentina's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 100% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches.
- ▸ US Sassuolo Calcio relies on Vasilije Adzic (3) as the Serie A top scorer.
- ▸ ACF Fiorentina relies on Franco Mastantuono (3) as the Serie A top scorer.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a US Sassuolo Calcio win (54.4%) with a typical scoreline of 2-1. Worth noting the 74% Over 2.5 reading and the 71% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is US Sassuolo Calcio vs ACF Fiorentina played? +
The US Sassuolo Calcio - ACF Fiorentina match is scheduled for Monday, 2 November 2026 at 17:30 UK time in the Serie A.
Who is the favorite between US Sassuolo Calcio and ACF Fiorentina? +
Our AI Predictor picks US Sassuolo Calcio as the favorite with a 54.4% win probability. Full odds: 54.4% for Sassuolo, 23.7% draw, 22.0% for Fiorentina.
What is the most likely score for US Sassuolo Calcio vs ACF Fiorentina? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 2-1, with expected goals (xG) of 2.38 for US Sassuolo Calcio and 1.49 for ACF Fiorentina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 74% for this US Sassuolo Calcio - ACF Fiorentina fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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