Skip to content
Talacote.com
Statistical prediction — not a guaranteed-win system. Probabilities computed via Poisson + ELO + Dixon-Coles on public data.  ·  See methodology  ·  Responsible Gambling

FIFA World Cup · Matchday 3

Recap: Turkey vs United States

Friday June 26, 2026 02:00 Match finished

Final score

3 2

Final score Turkey 3-2 United States. The AI Predictor had projected 1-1, with Over 2.5 at 46% and BTTS at 50%. Post-match analysis and AI lessons below.

Uncertain match expected on vendredi juin 26, 2026 between Turkey and United States. Our algorithm returns very close probabilities (27.9% / 32.2% / 39.9%), reflecting an evenly-matched duel on paper and in recent form.

Turkey (rank 4, 0 pts) is looking to string together strong results against United States (rank 1, 6 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this FIFA World Cup fixture.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for United States: Folarin Balogun (3)
  • 📊 Tight standings: Turkey (4th) and United States (1th) within 6 pts
  • ⚽ United States scores heavily: 2.2 goals/match average over last 6
  • 🗓️ Matchday 3, FIFA World Cup

AI Predictor Forecast

Turkey wins
27.9%
Draw
32.2%
USA wins
39.9%
Most likely score
1-1
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams to score
50%
Expected goals (xG)
1.11 - 1.39

💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction

Our AI said: USA (39.9%, Odds 2.64)

❌ Missed prediction

Losing bet.

Try Premium for all predictions →

League standings

Turkey
4 (0 pts)
United States
1 (6 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Turkey

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

L L W
1/3
W
0/3
D
2/3
L
Goals scored/match 1.00
Goals conceded/match 1.67
Both teams to score 33%
Over 2.5 goals 33%
  • 2026-06-14 Australia 2-0 Turkey
  • 2026-06-20 Turkey 0-1 Paraguay
  • 2026-06-26 Turkey 3-2 United States

Turkey arrives with a 1W/0D/2L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.00 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.67. Over 2.5 goals at 33%, BTTS at 33%.

United States

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W W L W L
3/5
W
0/5
D
2/5
L
Goals scored/match 2.20
Goals conceded/match 1.60
Both teams to score 60%
Over 2.5 goals 60%
  • 2026-06-13 United States 4-1 Paraguay
  • 2026-06-19 United States 2-0 Australia
  • 2026-06-26 Turkey 3-2 United States
  • 2026-07-02 United States 2-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina
  • 2026-07-07 United States 1-4 Belgium

⚽ Top scorer : Folarin Balogun (3)

United States arrives with a 3W/0D/2L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 2.20 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.60. Over 2.5 goals at 60%, BTTS at 60%.

⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)

DateMatchCompetition
2026-06-26 Turkey 3-2 United StatesFIFA World Cup

Our analysis

Statistically, Turkey (4 place, 0 pts) hosts United States (1 place, 6 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Turkey and – for United States) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.11 for Turkey versus 1.39 for United States, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.

How our AI reaches this prediction

The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 27.9% / 32.2% / 39.9% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.

Our verdict

Our AI's verdict: United States has a 39.9% chance of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1. The Over 2.5 (46%) and BTTS (50%) probabilities suggest an open match.

Frequently asked questions

When is Turkey vs United States played? +

The Turkey - United States match is scheduled for vendredi juin 26, 2026 at 02:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Turkey and United States? +

Our AI Predictor picks United States as the favorite with a 39.9% win probability. Full odds: 27.9% for Turkey, 32.2% draw, 39.9% for USA.

What is the most likely score for Turkey vs United States? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.11 for Turkey and 1.39 for United States.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 46% for this Turkey - United States fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

Full access right now

Scroll to Top