FIFA World Cup · Matchday 3
Recap: Turkey vs United States
Friday June 26, 2026 02:00 Match finished
Final score
3 – 2
Final score Turkey 3-2 United States. The AI Predictor had projected 1-1, with Over 2.5 at 46% and BTTS at 50%. Post-match analysis and AI lessons below.
Uncertain match expected on vendredi juin 26, 2026 between Turkey and United States. Our algorithm returns very close probabilities (27.9% / 32.2% / 39.9%), reflecting an evenly-matched duel on paper and in recent form.
Turkey (rank 4, 0 pts) is looking to string together strong results against United States (rank 1, 6 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this FIFA World Cup fixture.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for United States: Folarin Balogun (3)
- 📊 Tight standings: Turkey (4th) and United States (1th) within 6 pts
- ⚽ United States scores heavily: 2.2 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 3, FIFA World Cup
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: USA (39.9%, Odds 2.64)
❌ Missed prediction
Losing bet.
Try Premium for all predictions →League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Turkey
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-14
- 2026-06-20
- 2026-06-26
Turkey arrives with a 1W/0D/2L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.00 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.67. Over 2.5 goals at 33%, BTTS at 33%.
United States
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-13
- 2026-06-19
- 2026-06-26
- 2026-07-02
- 2026-07-07
⚽ Top scorer : Folarin Balogun (3)
United States arrives with a 3W/0D/2L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 2.20 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.60. Over 2.5 goals at 60%, BTTS at 60%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Turkey 3-2 United States | FIFA World Cup |
Our analysis
Statistically, Turkey (4 place, 0 pts) hosts United States (1 place, 6 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Turkey and – for United States) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.11 for Turkey versus 1.39 for United States, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 27.9% / 32.2% / 39.9% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.
Our verdict
Our AI's verdict: United States has a 39.9% chance of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1. The Over 2.5 (46%) and BTTS (50%) probabilities suggest an open match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Turkey vs United States played? +
The Turkey - United States match is scheduled for vendredi juin 26, 2026 at 02:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between Turkey and United States? +
Our AI Predictor picks United States as the favorite with a 39.9% win probability. Full odds: 27.9% for Turkey, 32.2% draw, 39.9% for USA.
What is the most likely score for Turkey vs United States? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.11 for Turkey and 1.39 for United States.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 46% for this Turkey - United States fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
Full access right now