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FIFA World Cup · Matchday 3

Prediction: Turkey vs United States

Friday June 26, 2026 02:00

Uncertain match expected on vendredi juin 26, 2026 between Turkey and United States. Our algorithm returns very close probabilities (27.9% / 32.2% / 39.9%), reflecting an evenly-matched duel on paper and in recent form.

Turkey (rank 4, 0 pts) is looking to string together strong results against United States (rank 1, 6 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this FIFA World Cup fixture.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for United States: Folarin Balogun (2)
  • 📊 Tight standings: Turkey (4th) and United States (1th) within 6 pts
  • ⚽ United States scores heavily: 3 goals/match average over last 6
  • 🗓️ Matchday 3, FIFA World Cup

AI Predictor Forecast

Turkey wins
27.9%
Draw
32.2%
USA wins
39.9%
Most likely score
1-1
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams to score
50%
Expected goals (xG)
1.11 - 1.39

Bookmaker odds

Real 1X2 odds collected from the main bookmakers for this match. The best odds for each outcome are highlighted.

BookmakerTurkeyDrawUSA
Betfair 3.40 4.40 2.04
Tipico 3.40 4.10 1.93
Matchbook 3.40 4.40 2.04
1xBet 3.37 4.21 2.08
Coolbet 3.35 4.15 2.03
Pinnacle 3.30 4.16 2.01
BetOnline.ag 3.30 4.22 2.02
William Hill 3.30 3.80 1.91
Best odds3.404.402.12

Market implied probability: 30% / 24% / 47%.

Odds provided by the-odds-api.com · 21/06 08:30

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League standings

Turkey
4 (0 pts)
United States
1 (6 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Turkey

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

L L
0/2
W
0/2
D
2/2
L
Goals scored/match 0.00
Goals conceded/match 1.50
Both teams to score 0%
Over 2.5 goals 0%
  • 2026-06-14 Australia 2-0 Turkey
  • 2026-06-20 Turkey 0-1 Paraguay

Turkey arrives with a 0W/0D/2L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 0.00 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.50. Over 2.5 goals at 0%, BTTS at 0%.

United States

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W W
2/2
W
0/2
D
0/2
L
Goals scored/match 3.00
Goals conceded/match 0.50
Both teams to score 50%
Over 2.5 goals 50%
  • 2026-06-13 United States 4-1 Paraguay
  • 2026-06-19 United States 2-0 Australia

⚽ Top scorer : Folarin Balogun (2)

United States arrives with a 2W/0D/0L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 3.00 goal(s) on average and conceding 0.50. Over 2.5 goals at 50%, BTTS at 50%.

Our analysis

Statistically, Turkey (4 place, 0 pts) hosts United States (1 place, 6 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Turkey and – for United States) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.11 for Turkey versus 1.39 for United States, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.

How our AI reaches this prediction

The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 27.9% / 32.2% / 39.9% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.

Our verdict

Our AI's verdict: United States has a 39.9% chance of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1. The Over 2.5 (46%) and BTTS (50%) probabilities suggest an open match.

Frequently asked questions

When is Turkey vs United States played? +

The Turkey - United States match is scheduled for vendredi juin 26, 2026 at 02:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Turkey and United States? +

Our AI Predictor picks United States as the favorite with a 39.9% win probability. Full odds: 27.9% for Turkey, 32.2% draw, 39.9% for USA.

What is the most likely score for Turkey vs United States? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.11 for Turkey and 1.39 for United States.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 46% for this Turkey - United States fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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