FIFA World Cup · Matchday 3
Prediction: Turkey vs United States
Friday June 26, 2026 02:00
Uncertain match expected on vendredi juin 26, 2026 between Turkey and United States. Our algorithm returns very close probabilities (27.9% / 32.2% / 39.9%), reflecting an evenly-matched duel on paper and in recent form.
Turkey (rank 4, 0 pts) is looking to string together strong results against United States (rank 1, 6 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this FIFA World Cup fixture.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for United States: Folarin Balogun (2)
- 📊 Tight standings: Turkey (4th) and United States (1th) within 6 pts
- ⚽ United States scores heavily: 3 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 3, FIFA World Cup
AI Predictor Forecast
Bookmaker odds
Real 1X2 odds collected from the main bookmakers for this match. The best odds for each outcome are highlighted.
| Bookmaker | Turkey | Draw | USA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 3.40 | 4.40 | 2.04 |
| Tipico | 3.40 | 4.10 | 1.93 |
| Matchbook | 3.40 | 4.40 | 2.04 |
| 1xBet | 3.37 | 4.21 | 2.08 |
| Coolbet | 3.35 | 4.15 | 2.03 |
| Pinnacle | 3.30 | 4.16 | 2.01 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.30 | 4.22 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.80 | 1.91 |
| Best odds | 3.40 | 4.40 | 2.12 |
Market implied probability: 30% / 24% / 47%.
Odds provided by the-odds-api.com · 21/06 08:30
Simulate your bet on this match
Pick your bet
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Turkey
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-14
- 2026-06-20
Turkey arrives with a 0W/0D/2L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 0.00 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.50. Over 2.5 goals at 0%, BTTS at 0%.
United States
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-13
- 2026-06-19
⚽ Top scorer : Folarin Balogun (2)
United States arrives with a 2W/0D/0L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 3.00 goal(s) on average and conceding 0.50. Over 2.5 goals at 50%, BTTS at 50%.
Our analysis
Statistically, Turkey (4 place, 0 pts) hosts United States (1 place, 6 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Turkey and – for United States) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.11 for Turkey versus 1.39 for United States, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 27.9% / 32.2% / 39.9% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.
Our verdict
Our AI's verdict: United States has a 39.9% chance of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1. The Over 2.5 (46%) and BTTS (50%) probabilities suggest an open match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Turkey vs United States played? +
The Turkey - United States match is scheduled for vendredi juin 26, 2026 at 02:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between Turkey and United States? +
Our AI Predictor picks United States as the favorite with a 39.9% win probability. Full odds: 27.9% for Turkey, 32.2% draw, 39.9% for USA.
What is the most likely score for Turkey vs United States? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.11 for Turkey and 1.39 for United States.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 46% for this Turkey - United States fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
Full access right now