Ligue 1 · Matchday 12
Prediction: Toulouse FC vs Stade Rennais FC 1901
Sunday, 29 November 2026 16:15 UK time
Our AI makes Toulouse FC the favourite for Toulouse FC vs Stade Rennais FC 1901, with a 41.5% win probability. Kick-off: Sunday, 29 November 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Uncertain match expected on Sunday, 29 November 2026 between Toulouse FC and Stade Rennais FC 1901. Our algorithm returns very close probabilities (41.5% / 26.1% / 32.4%), reflecting an evenly-matched duel on paper and in recent form.
Toulouse FC (rank 12, 10 pts) is looking to string together strong results against Stade Rennais FC 1901 (rank 5, 16 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this Ligue 1 fixture.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Toulouse FC: Casper Tengstedt (5)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Stade Rennais FC 1901: Esteban Lepaul (7)
- ⚽ Stade Rennais FC 1901 scores heavily: 2.17 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 12, Ligue 1
AI Predictor Forecast
Simulate your bet on this match
Pick your bet
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Toulouse FC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
- 2026-10-10
- 2026-10-16
- 2026-10-25
- 2026-11-01
⚽ Top scorer : Casper Tengstedt (5)
Toulouse FC arrives with a 2W/3D/1L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.67 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.33. Over 2.5 goals at 67%, BTTS at 50%.
Stade Rennais FC 1901
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-09-11
- 2026-09-19
- 2026-10-11
- 2026-10-18
- 2026-10-25
- 2026-10-30
⚽ Top scorer : Esteban Lepaul (7)
Stade Rennais FC 1901 arrives with a 3W/0D/3L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 2.17 goal(s) on average and conceding 2.33. Over 2.5 goals at 83%, BTTS at 50%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Stade Rennais FC 1901 1-0 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Toulouse FC 2-2 Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Toulouse FC 2-1 Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Stade Rennais FC 1901 0-2 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-13 | Stade Rennais FC 1901 1-2 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
Our analysis
Statistically, Toulouse FC (12 place, 10 pts) hosts Stade Rennais FC 1901 (5 place, 16 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Toulouse FC and – for Stade Rennais FC 1901) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation.
With an xG of 1.98 for Toulouse FC versus 1.74 for Stade Rennais FC 1901, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The weighting engine combines offensive/defensive xG (35% weight), 5-match form dynamics (28%), standings and points (20%), head-to-head (12%), and home advantage (5%). Final 1X2 result lands at 41.5% / 26.1% / 32.4%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Toulouse FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 83% of Stade Rennais FC 1901's recent matches.
- ▸ Toulouse FC relies on Casper Tengstedt (5) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
- ▸ Stade Rennais FC 1901 relies on Esteban Lepaul (7) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
Our verdict
Our AI's verdict: Toulouse FC has a 41.5% chance of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1. The Over 2.5 (72%) and BTTS (72%) probabilities suggest an open match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Toulouse FC vs Stade Rennais FC 1901 played? +
The Toulouse FC - Stade Rennais FC 1901 match is scheduled for Sunday, 29 November 2026 at 16:15 UK time in the Ligue 1.
Who is the favorite between Toulouse FC and Stade Rennais FC 1901? +
Our AI Predictor picks Toulouse FC as the favorite with a 41.5% win probability. Full odds: 41.5% for Toulouse, 26.1% draw, 32.4% for Stade Rennais.
What is the most likely score for Toulouse FC vs Stade Rennais FC 1901? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.98 for Toulouse FC and 1.74 for Stade Rennais FC 1901.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 72% for this Toulouse FC - Stade Rennais FC 1901 fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
Full access right now