Ligue 1 · Matchday 13
Prediction: Toulouse FC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC
Friday, 4 December 2026 19:45 UK time
Our AI makes Paris Saint-Germain FC the favourite for Toulouse FC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC, with a 41.4% win probability. Kick-off: Friday, 4 December 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Balanced fixture for Toulouse FC - Paris Saint-Germain FC on Friday, 4 December 2026. No clear AI favorite: 30.5% home, 28.1% draw, 41.4% away. Statistical details settle the duel on the margins.
For Toulouse FC (13 pts on the board, 10 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Paris Saint-Germain FC (20 pts, 1) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Toulouse FC: Casper Tengstedt (5)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Paris Saint-Germain FC: Ferrán Torres (4)
- 📊 League gap: Paris Saint-Germain FC (1th) vs Toulouse FC (10th)
- ⚽ Paris Saint-Germain FC scores heavily: 4 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 13, Ligue 1
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Toulouse FC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
- 2026-10-10
- 2026-10-16
- 2026-10-25
- 2026-11-01
⚽ Top scorer : Casper Tengstedt (5)
Toulouse FC form: 2 wins, 3 draw(s), and 1 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.67) and defensive average (1.33) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 67%.
Paris Saint-Germain FC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-10-14
- 2026-10-17
- 2026-10-20
- 2026-10-26
- 2026-10-30
- 2026-11-03
⚽ Top scorer : Ferrán Torres (4)
Paris Saint-Germain FC form: 6 wins, 0 draw(s), and 0 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (4.00) and defensive average (1.00) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 83%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 3-1 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Toulouse FC 3-6 Paris Saint-Germain FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-15 | Toulouse FC 0-1 Paris Saint-Germain FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-22 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 3-0 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-05-12 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 1-3 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
Our analysis
Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (13 pts vs 20 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (1.50 vs 1.77). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited to asymmetric matches, returns a 30.5% probability of a Toulouse FC win.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The weighting engine combines offensive/defensive xG (35% weight), 5-match form dynamics (28%), standings and points (20%), head-to-head (12%), and home advantage (5%). Final 1X2 result lands at 30.5% / 28.1% / 41.4%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC sits at the top of Ligue 1 with 20 pts.
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC is on a 6-match winning streak.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Toulouse FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 67% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Toulouse FC relies on Casper Tengstedt (5) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC relies on Ferrán Torres (4) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
Our verdict
In short, Paris Saint-Germain FC stands as our algorithm's favourite at 41.4%. The modelled scoreline sits around 1-1, and the Over 2.5 (64%) and BTTS (65%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.
Frequently asked questions
When is Toulouse FC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC played? +
The Toulouse FC - Paris Saint-Germain FC match is scheduled for Friday, 4 December 2026 at 19:45 UK time in the Ligue 1.
Who is the favorite between Toulouse FC and Paris Saint-Germain FC? +
Our AI Predictor picks Paris Saint-Germain FC as the favorite with a 41.4% win probability. Full odds: 30.5% for Toulouse, 28.1% draw, 41.4% for PSG.
What is the most likely score for Toulouse FC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.50 for Toulouse FC and 1.77 for Paris Saint-Germain FC.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 64% for this Toulouse FC - Paris Saint-Germain FC fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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