Serie A · Matchday 11
Prediction: SSC Napoli vs SS Lazio
Sunday, 8 November 2026 11:30 UK time
Our AI makes SS Lazio the favourite for SSC Napoli vs SS Lazio, with a 40.1% win probability. Kick-off: Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Wide-open match this Sunday, 8 November 2026: SSC Napoli vs SS Lazio. Our AI Predictor returns a tight distribution (27.9% / 32.1% / 40.1%) — typical of the situations where value-bet analysis pays off. Breakdown below.
For SSC Napoli (9), hosting SS Lazio (2) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With SS Lazio a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for SSC Napoli: Kevin De Bruyne (3)
- 🎯 Key scorer for SS Lazio: Davide Frattesi (3)
- ⚽ SS Lazio scores heavily: 2.17 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 11, Serie A
AI Predictor Forecast
Simulate your bet on this match
Pick your bet
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
SSC Napoli
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-09-09
- 2026-09-13
- 2026-09-20
- 2026-10-10
- 2026-10-13
- 2026-10-17
⚽ Top scorer : Kevin De Bruyne (3)
Across its last 6 outings, SSC Napoli has 2 wins, 1 draw(s), and 3 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 1.00 goal(s)/match, defensive at 1.00. Both teams have scored in 33% of recent games.
SS Lazio
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-30
- 2026-09-07
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
- 2026-10-11
- 2026-10-18
⚽ Top scorer : Davide Frattesi (3)
Across its last 6 outings, SS Lazio has 5 wins, 1 draw(s), and 0 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.17 goal(s)/match, defensive at 0.67. Both teams have scored in 50% of recent games.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | SSC Napoli 0-2 SS Lazio | Serie A |
| 2026-01-04 | SS Lazio 0-2 SSC Napoli | Serie A |
| 2025-02-15 | SS Lazio 2-2 SSC Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-12-08 | SSC Napoli 0-1 SS Lazio | Serie A |
Our analysis
Historical data and current form converge for this match. SSC Napoli (form: –) meets SS Lazio (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 48% and a BTTS of 53% — interesting markets for value bettors.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 27.9% / 32.1% / 40.1% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ SS Lazio is in the top 3 of Serie A (2, 19 pts).
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of SS Lazio's recent matches.
- ▸ SSC Napoli relies on Kevin De Bruyne (3) as the Serie A top scorer.
- ▸ SS Lazio relies on Davide Frattesi (3) as the Serie A top scorer.
Our verdict
In short, SS Lazio stands as our algorithm's favourite at 40.1%. The modelled scoreline sits around 1-1, and the Over 2.5 (48%) and BTTS (53%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.
Frequently asked questions
When is SSC Napoli vs SS Lazio played? +
The SSC Napoli - SS Lazio match is scheduled for Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 11:30 UK time in the Serie A.
Who is the favorite between SSC Napoli and SS Lazio? +
Our AI Predictor picks SS Lazio as the favorite with a 40.1% win probability. Full odds: 27.9% for Napoli, 32.1% draw, 40.1% for Lazio.
What is the most likely score for SSC Napoli vs SS Lazio? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.15 for SSC Napoli and 1.43 for SS Lazio.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 48% for this SSC Napoli - SS Lazio fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
Full access right now