FIFA World Cup
Prediction: Spain vs Belgium
Friday July 10, 2026 19:00
Spain hosts Belgium this vendredi at 19:00 in the FIFA World Cup. According to our AI, Spain approaches this match as the statistical favorite.
Spain (1 in the FIFA World Cup, 7 pts) faces this match as a benchmark test on home soil. Belgium (1, 5 pts) needs to confirm its standing to avoid letting the gap widen down the stretch.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Spain: Mikel Oyarzabal (4)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Belgium: Romelu Lukaku (3)
- 📊 Tight standings: Spain (1th) and Belgium (1th) within 2 pts
- ⚽ Belgium scores heavily: 2.6 goals/match average over last 6
AI Predictor Forecast
Bookmaker odds
Real 1X2 odds collected from the main bookmakers for this match. The best odds for each outcome are highlighted.
| Bookmaker | Spain | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 4.06 | 5.62 |
| Matchbook | 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.66 | 3.95 | 6.10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.66 | 3.95 | 6.10 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.65 | 4.10 | 5.60 |
| Betsson | 1.65 | 4.10 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.00 | 5.70 |
| Best odds | 1.69 | 4.20 | 6.10 |
Market implied probability: 58% / 24% / 17%.
Odds provided by the-odds-api.com · 07/07 08:30
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Spain
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-15
- 2026-06-21
- 2026-06-27
- 2026-07-02
- 2026-07-06
⚽ Top scorer : Mikel Oyarzabal (4)
Recent record for Spain: 4W-1D-0L over the last 6 matches. 1.80 goal(s) scored on average vs 0.00 conceded. BTTS observed at 0%, Over 2.5 at 40%.
Belgium
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-15
- 2026-06-21
- 2026-06-27
- 2026-07-01
- 2026-07-07
⚽ Top scorer : Romelu Lukaku (3)
Recent record for Belgium: 3W-2D-0L over the last 6 matches. 2.60 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.00 conceded. BTTS observed at 80%, Over 2.5 at 60%.
Our analysis
Statistically, Spain (1 place, 7 pts) hosts Belgium (1 place, 5 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Spain and – for Belgium) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.34 for Spain versus 0.95 for Belgium, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-0.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 42.2% Spain win, 33.3% draw, 24.5% Belgium win.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Spain sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 7 pts.
- ▸ Belgium sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 5 pts.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 80% of Belgium's recent matches.
- ▸ Spain relies on Mikel Oyarzabal (4) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
- ▸ Belgium relies on Romelu Lukaku (3) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a Spain win (42.2%) with a typical scoreline of 1-0. Worth noting the 40% Over 2.5 reading and the 45% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is Spain vs Belgium played? +
The Spain - Belgium match is scheduled for vendredi juillet 10, 2026 at 19:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between Spain and Belgium? +
Our AI Predictor picks Spain as the favorite with a 42.2% win probability. Full odds: 42.2% for Spain, 33.3% draw, 24.5% for Belgium.
What is the most likely score for Spain vs Belgium? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.34 for Spain and 0.95 for Belgium.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 40% for this Spain - Belgium fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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