Bundesliga · Matchday 9
Prediction: SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Sunday, 8 November 2026 16:30 UK time
Our AI makes SC Freiburg the favourite for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin, with a 78.1% win probability. Kick-off: Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Match looks lopsided on paper this Sunday, 8 November 2026: SC Freiburg hosts 1. FC Union Berlin with a 78.1% AI win probability. Standings, recent dynamics, and xG all tilt heavily toward the home side. But football stays unpredictable — here's why.
For SC Freiburg (13 pts on the board, 3 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. 1. FC Union Berlin (5 pts, 17) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for SC Freiburg: Yuito Suzuki (4)
- 🎯 Key scorer for 1. FC Union Berlin: Tim Skarke (2)
- 📊 League gap: SC Freiburg (3th) vs 1. FC Union Berlin (17th)
- ⚽ SC Freiburg scores heavily: 2.8 goals/match average over last 6
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 80% of SC Freiburg's recent matches
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
SC Freiburg
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-30
- 2026-09-05
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
- 2026-10-11
⚽ Top scorer : Yuito Suzuki (4)
SC Freiburg form: 4 wins, 1 draw(s), and 0 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (2.80) and defensive average (0.80) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 80%.
1. FC Union Berlin
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-05
- 2026-09-11
- 2026-09-18
- 2026-10-10
⚽ Top scorer : Tim Skarke (2)
1. FC Union Berlin form: 1 wins, 1 draw(s), and 3 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.00) and defensive average (3.40) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 80%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | SC Freiburg 0-1 1. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-01 | 1. FC Union Berlin 0-0 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-03-30 | SC Freiburg 1-2 1. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-08 | 1. FC Union Berlin 0-0 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-05-18 | 1. FC Union Berlin 2-1 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Our analysis
Historical data and current form converge for this match. SC Freiburg (form: –) meets 1. FC Union Berlin (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 75% and a BTTS of 56% — interesting markets for value bettors.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 78.1% / 15.1% / 6.9%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ SC Freiburg is in the top 3 of Bundesliga (3, 13 pts).
- ▸ SC Freiburg is on a 3-match winning streak.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 80% of SC Freiburg's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 80% of 1. FC Union Berlin's recent matches.
- ▸ SC Freiburg relies on Yuito Suzuki (4) as the Bundesliga top scorer.
- ▸ 1. FC Union Berlin relies on Tim Skarke (2) as the Bundesliga top scorer.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a SC Freiburg win (78.1%) with a typical scoreline of 3-0. Worth noting the 75% Over 2.5 reading and the 56% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin played? +
The SC Freiburg - 1. FC Union Berlin match is scheduled for Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 16:30 UK time in the Bundesliga.
Who is the favorite between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Union Berlin? +
Our AI Predictor picks SC Freiburg as the favorite with a 78.1% win probability. Full odds: 78.1% for Freiburg, 15.1% draw, 6.9% for Union Berlin.
What is the most likely score for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 3-0, with expected goals (xG) of 3.07 for SC Freiburg and 0.87 for 1. FC Union Berlin.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 75% for this SC Freiburg - 1. FC Union Berlin fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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