La Liga · Matchday 14
Prediction: Real Madrid CF vs Deportivo Alavés
Saturday, 28 November 2026 20:00 UK time
Our AI makes Real Madrid CF the favourite for Real Madrid CF vs Deportivo Alavés, with a 62.2% win probability. Kick-off: Saturday, 28 November 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Real Madrid CF faces Deportivo Alavés on Saturday, 28 November 2026 as a clear-cut favorite. Our AI Predictor gives Real Madrid CF a 62.2% win probability — a sharp imbalance backed by table position and current form. Full analysis below.
Real Madrid CF (rank 3, 27 pts) is looking to string together strong results against Deportivo Alavés (rank 9, 13 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this La Liga fixture.
Key takeaways
- 🗓️ Matchday 14, La Liga
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Our analysis
Statistically, Real Madrid CF (3 place, 27 pts) hosts Deportivo Alavés (9 place, 13 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Real Madrid CF and – for Deportivo Alavés) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation.
With an xG of 2.28 for Real Madrid CF versus 1.03 for Deportivo Alavés, our Poisson model projects a final score around 2-1.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 62.2% / 23.3% / 14.5% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a Real Madrid CF win (62.2%) with a typical scoreline of 2-1. Worth noting the 64% Over 2.5 reading and the 58% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is Real Madrid CF vs Deportivo Alavés played? +
The Real Madrid CF - Deportivo Alavés match is scheduled for Saturday, 28 November 2026 at 20:00 UK time in the La Liga.
Who is the favorite between Real Madrid CF and Deportivo Alavés? +
Our AI Predictor picks Real Madrid CF as the favorite with a 62.2% win probability. Full odds: 62.2% for Real Madrid, 23.3% draw, 14.5% for Alavés.
What is the most likely score for Real Madrid CF vs Deportivo Alavés? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 2-1, with expected goals (xG) of 2.28 for Real Madrid CF and 1.03 for Deportivo Alavés.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 64% for this Real Madrid CF - Deportivo Alavés fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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