La Liga · Matchday 37
Recap: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Villarreal CF
Sunday May 17, 2026 17:00 Match finished
Final score
2 – 0
Match over: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2-0 Villarreal CF. Our initial AI prediction had Villarreal CF favored at 38.2%. Compare reality with probabilities to calibrate your read on upcoming La Liga matches.
Uncertain match expected on Sunday May 17, 2026 between Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and Villarreal CF. Our algorithm returns very close probabilities (30.9% / 30.9% / 38.2%), reflecting an evenly-matched duel on paper and in recent form.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (10 in the La Liga, 44 pts) faces this match as a benchmark test on home soil. Villarreal CF (3, 69 pts) needs to confirm its standing to avoid letting the gap widen down the stretch.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Jorge de Frutos (10)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Villarreal CF: Georges Mikautadze (12)
- ⚽ Villarreal CF scores heavily: 2.17 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 37, La Liga
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: Villarreal (38.2%, Odds 2.75)
❌ Missed prediction
Losing bet.
Try Premium for all predictions →League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-04-12
- 2026-04-23
- 2026-04-26
- 2026-05-03
- 2026-05-11
- 2026-05-14
⚽ Top scorer : Jorge de Frutos (10)
Recent record for Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: 2W-3D-1L over the last 6 matches. 1.33 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.33 conceded. BTTS observed at 50%, Over 2.5 at 33%.
Villarreal CF
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-04-12
- 2026-04-23
- 2026-04-26
- 2026-05-02
- 2026-05-10
- 2026-05-13
⚽ Top scorer : Georges Mikautadze (12)
Recent record for Villarreal CF: 3W-2D-1L over the last 6 matches. 2.17 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.33 conceded. BTTS observed at 100%, Over 2.5 at 67%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Villarreal CF 4-0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-22 | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0-1 Villarreal CF | Primera Division |
| 2024-12-18 | Villarreal CF 1-1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Primera Division |
| 2024-04-28 | Villarreal CF 3-0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Primera Division |
| 2023-09-24 | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-1 Villarreal CF | Primera Division |
Our analysis
Statistically, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (10 place, 44 pts) hosts Villarreal CF (3 place, 69 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and – for Villarreal CF) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation.
With an xG of 1.28 for Rayo Vallecano de Madrid versus 1.45 for Villarreal CF, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 30.9% / 30.9% / 38.2% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Villarreal CF is in the top 3 of La Liga (3, 69 pts).
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Villarreal CF's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 100% of Villarreal CF's recent matches.
- ▸ Rayo Vallecano de Madrid relies on Jorge de Frutos (10) as the La Liga top scorer.
- ▸ Villarreal CF relies on Georges Mikautadze (12) as the La Liga top scorer.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a Villarreal CF win (38.2%) with a typical scoreline of 1-1. Worth noting the 51% Over 2.5 reading and the 55% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Villarreal CF played? +
The Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - Villarreal CF match is scheduled for Sunday May 17, 2026 at 17:00 in the La Liga.
Who is the favorite between Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and Villarreal CF? +
Our AI Predictor picks Villarreal CF as the favorite with a 38.2% win probability. Full odds: 30.9% for Rayo Vallecano, 30.9% draw, 38.2% for Villarreal.
What is the most likely score for Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Villarreal CF? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.28 for Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and 1.45 for Villarreal CF.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 51% for this Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - Villarreal CF fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
Full access right now