Ligue 1 · Matchday 11
Prediction: Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC
Saturday, 21 November 2026 19:45 UK time
Our AI makes Racing Club de Lens the favourite for Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC, with a 46.8% win probability. Kick-off: Saturday, 21 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Our AI Predictor examined the Ligue 1 clash Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC. Verdict: Racing Club de Lens carries a 46.8% chance of winning. Full breakdown below.
Racing Club de Lens (rank 9, 13 pts) is looking to string together strong results against Toulouse FC (rank 12, 10 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this Ligue 1 fixture.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Racing Club de Lens: Florian Thauvin (3)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Toulouse FC: Casper Tengstedt (5)
- 📊 Tight standings: Racing Club de Lens (9th) and Toulouse FC (12th) within 3 pts
- ⚽ Toulouse FC scores heavily: 2 goals/match average over last 6
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 83% of Racing Club de Lens's recent matches
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Racing Club de Lens
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-09-13
- 2026-09-18
- 2026-10-09
- 2026-10-13
- 2026-10-17
- 2026-10-21
⚽ Top scorer : Florian Thauvin (3)
Racing Club de Lens arrives with a 2W/1D/3L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.33 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.83. Over 2.5 goals at 83%, BTTS at 67%.
Toulouse FC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-03
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
- 2026-10-10
- 2026-10-16
⚽ Top scorer : Casper Tengstedt (5)
Toulouse FC arrives with a 2W/3D/1L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 2.00 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.50. Over 2.5 goals at 83%, BTTS at 67%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Racing Club de Lens 3-2 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Toulouse FC 0-3 Racing Club de Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Toulouse FC 1-1 Racing Club de Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Racing Club de Lens 0-1 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
Our analysis
Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (13 pts vs 10 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (1.85 vs 1.32). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited to asymmetric matches, returns a 46.8% probability of a Racing Club de Lens win.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 46.8% / 27.9% / 25.3%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 83% of Racing Club de Lens's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 83% of Toulouse FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 67% of Racing Club de Lens's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 67% of Toulouse FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Racing Club de Lens relies on Florian Thauvin (3) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
- ▸ Toulouse FC relies on Casper Tengstedt (5) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
Our verdict
Our AI's verdict: Racing Club de Lens has a 46.8% chance of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1. The Over 2.5 (61%) and BTTS (63%) probabilities suggest an open match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC played? +
The Racing Club de Lens - Toulouse FC match is scheduled for Saturday, 21 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time in the Ligue 1.
Who is the favorite between Racing Club de Lens and Toulouse FC? +
Our AI Predictor picks Racing Club de Lens as the favorite with a 46.8% win probability. Full odds: 46.8% for RC Lens, 27.9% draw, 25.3% for Toulouse.
What is the most likely score for Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.85 for Racing Club de Lens and 1.32 for Toulouse FC.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 61% for this Racing Club de Lens - Toulouse FC fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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