Ligue 1 · Matchday 10
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs ES Troyes AC
Saturday, 7 November 2026 19:45 UK time
Our AI makes Paris Saint-Germain FC the favourite for Paris Saint-Germain FC vs ES Troyes AC, with a 67.4% win probability. Kick-off: Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Match looks lopsided on paper this Saturday, 7 November 2026: Paris Saint-Germain FC hosts ES Troyes AC with a 67.4% AI win probability. Standings, recent dynamics, and xG all tilt heavily toward the home side. But football stays unpredictable — here's why.
For Paris Saint-Germain FC (14 pts on the board, 2 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. ES Troyes AC (4 pts, 17) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Paris Saint-Germain FC: Ferrán Torres (4)
- 📊 League gap: Paris Saint-Germain FC (2th) vs ES Troyes AC (17th)
- ⚽ Paris Saint-Germain FC scores heavily: 2.83 goals/match average over last 6
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches
AI Predictor Forecast
Simulate your bet on this match
Pick your bet
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Paris Saint-Germain FC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-09-13
- 2026-09-20
- 2026-10-10
- 2026-10-14
- 2026-10-17
- 2026-10-20
⚽ Top scorer : Ferrán Torres (4)
Paris Saint-Germain FC form: 6 wins, 0 draw(s), and 0 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (2.83) and defensive average (1.17) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 83%.
ES Troyes AC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-06
- 2026-09-13
- 2026-09-19
- 2026-10-11
- 2026-10-17
ES Troyes AC form: 1 wins, 0 draw(s), and 5 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (0.83) and defensive average (2.67) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 50%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-07 | ES Troyes AC 1-3 Paris Saint-Germain FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-29 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 4-3 ES Troyes AC | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-05-08 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 2-2 ES Troyes AC | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-08-07 | ES Troyes AC 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain FC | Ligue 1 |
Our analysis
Historical data and current form converge for this match. Paris Saint-Germain FC (form: –) meets ES Troyes AC (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 66% and a BTTS of 57% — interesting markets for value bettors.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 67.4% / 21.0% / 11.6%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC is in the top 3 of Ligue 1 (2, 14 pts).
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC is on a 6-match winning streak.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC relies on Ferrán Torres (4) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a Paris Saint-Germain FC win (67.4%) with a typical scoreline of 2-0. Worth noting the 66% Over 2.5 reading and the 57% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is Paris Saint-Germain FC vs ES Troyes AC played? +
The Paris Saint-Germain FC - ES Troyes AC match is scheduled for Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time in the Ligue 1.
Who is the favorite between Paris Saint-Germain FC and ES Troyes AC? +
Our AI Predictor picks Paris Saint-Germain FC as the favorite with a 67.4% win probability. Full odds: 67.4% for PSG, 21.0% draw, 11.6% for Troyes.
What is the most likely score for Paris Saint-Germain FC vs ES Troyes AC? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 2-0, with expected goals (xG) of 2.46 for Paris Saint-Germain FC and 0.95 for ES Troyes AC.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 66% for this Paris Saint-Germain FC - ES Troyes AC fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
Full access right now