UEFA Champions League · Matchday 5
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Roma
Wednesday, 25 November 2026 20:00 UK time
Our AI makes Paris Saint-Germain FC the favourite for Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Roma, with a 73.4% win probability. Kick-off: Wednesday, 25 November 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Paris Saint-Germain FC starts as a strong favorite over AS Roma (73.4% vs 12.2%). Our Poisson model, confirmed by ELO and Dixon-Coles, converges on this verdict. The bettor's question: does the bookmaker price reflect the gap accurately?
For Paris Saint-Germain FC (1), hosting AS Roma (20) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With Paris Saint-Germain FC a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Paris Saint-Germain FC: Ousmane Dembélé (3)
- 🎯 Key scorer for AS Roma: Donyell Malen (3)
- 📊 League gap: Paris Saint-Germain FC (1th) vs AS Roma (20th)
- ⚽ Paris Saint-Germain FC scores heavily: 3 goals/match average over last 6
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches
AI Predictor Forecast
Simulate your bet on this match
Pick your bet
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Paris Saint-Germain FC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-09-20
- 2026-10-10
- 2026-10-14
- 2026-10-17
- 2026-10-20
- 2026-10-26
⚽ Top scorer : Ousmane Dembélé (3)
Across its last 6 outings, Paris Saint-Germain FC has 6 wins, 0 draw(s), and 0 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 3.00 goal(s)/match, defensive at 1.17. Both teams have scored in 83% of recent games.
AS Roma
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-10-11
- 2026-10-14
- 2026-10-17
- 2026-10-20
- 2026-10-24
- 2026-10-27
⚽ Top scorer : Donyell Malen (3)
Across its last 6 outings, AS Roma has 3 wins, 2 draw(s), and 1 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.67 goal(s)/match, defensive at 1.50. Both teams have scored in 50% of recent games.
Our analysis
Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (12 pts vs 4 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (4.03 vs 1.78). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited to asymmetric matches, returns a 73.4% probability of a Paris Saint-Germain FC win.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The weighting engine combines offensive/defensive xG (35% weight), 5-match form dynamics (28%), standings and points (20%), head-to-head (12%), and home advantage (5%). Final 1X2 result lands at 73.4% / 14.4% / 12.2%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC sits at the top of UEFA Champions League with 12 pts.
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC is on a 6-match winning streak.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of AS Roma's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC relies on Ousmane Dembélé (3) as the UEFA Champions League top scorer.
- ▸ AS Roma relies on Donyell Malen (3) as the UEFA Champions League top scorer.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to Paris Saint-Germain FC (73.4% win probability) with a 4-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 92%, BTTS at 82%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Roma played? +
The Paris Saint-Germain FC - AS Roma match is scheduled for Wednesday, 25 November 2026 at 20:00 UK time in the UEFA Champions League.
Who is the favorite between Paris Saint-Germain FC and AS Roma? +
Our AI Predictor picks Paris Saint-Germain FC as the favorite with a 73.4% win probability. Full odds: 73.4% for PSG, 14.4% draw, 12.2% for Roma.
What is the most likely score for Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Roma? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 4-1, with expected goals (xG) of 4.03 for Paris Saint-Germain FC and 1.78 for AS Roma.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 92% for this Paris Saint-Germain FC - AS Roma fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
Full access right now