Ligue 1 · Matchday 9
Prediction: Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse FC
Sunday, 1 November 2026 19:45 UK time
Our AI makes Olympique de Marseille the favourite for Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse FC, with a 47.7% win probability. Kick-off: Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Olympique de Marseille hosts Toulouse FC this Sunday at 19:45 UK time in the Ligue 1. According to our AI, Olympique de Marseille approaches this match as the statistical favorite.
Olympique de Marseille (rank 9, 9 pts) is looking to string together strong results against Toulouse FC (rank 11, 9 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this Ligue 1 fixture.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Olympique de Marseille: Amine Gouiri (4)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Toulouse FC: Casper Tengstedt (3)
- 📊 Tight standings: Olympique de Marseille (9th) and Toulouse FC (11th) within 0 pts
- 🗓️ Matchday 9, Ligue 1
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Olympique de Marseille
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-21
- 2026-08-30
- 2026-09-06
- 2026-09-11
- 2026-09-20
⚽ Top scorer : Amine Gouiri (4)
Olympique de Marseille arrives with a 1W/0D/4L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.40 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.60. Over 2.5 goals at 60%, BTTS at 40%.
Toulouse FC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-22
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-03
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
⚽ Top scorer : Casper Tengstedt (3)
Toulouse FC arrives with a 1W/2D/2L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.40 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.80. Over 2.5 goals at 60%, BTTS at 60%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Toulouse FC 0-1 Olympique de Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Olympique de Marseille 2-2 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Olympique de Marseille 3-2 Toulouse FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-08-31 | Toulouse FC 1-3 Olympique de Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Our analysis
Statistically, Olympique de Marseille (9 place, 9 pts) hosts Toulouse FC (11 place, 9 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Olympique de Marseille and – for Toulouse FC) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation.
With an xG of 2.05 for Olympique de Marseille versus 1.49 for Toulouse FC, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 47.7% / 26.1% / 26.2% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a Olympique de Marseille win (47.7%) with a typical scoreline of 1-1. Worth noting the 69% Over 2.5 reading and the 68% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse FC played? +
The Olympique de Marseille - Toulouse FC match is scheduled for Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time in the Ligue 1.
Who is the favorite between Olympique de Marseille and Toulouse FC? +
Our AI Predictor picks Olympique de Marseille as the favorite with a 47.7% win probability. Full odds: 47.7% for Marseille, 26.1% draw, 26.2% for Toulouse.
What is the most likely score for Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse FC? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 2.05 for Olympique de Marseille and 1.49 for Toulouse FC.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 69% for this Olympique de Marseille - Toulouse FC fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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