Skip to content
Talacote.com
Statistical prediction — not a guaranteed-win system. Probabilities computed via Poisson + ELO + Dixon-Coles on public data.  ·  See methodology  ·  Responsible Gambling

FIFA World Cup · Matchday 3

Recap: Norway vs France

Friday June 26, 2026 19:00 Match finished

Final score

1 4

The Norway - France match ended 1-4. Our AI prediction gave 14.0% for a Norway win, 27.7% for a draw, and 58.3% for France.

Tough mission for Norway against France (14.0% vs 58.3% per our AI). Home advantage weighs little against the form and table deficit. The match stays open, but the stats lean clearly.

For Norway (2), hosting France (1) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With France a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for Norway: Erling Haaland (7)
  • 🎯 Key scorer for France: Kylian Mbappé (8)
  • 📊 Tight standings: Norway (2th) and France (1th) within 0 pts
  • ⚽ Norway scores heavily: 2.17 goals/match average over last 6
  • 🎯 Both teams scored in 100% of Norway's recent matches
  • 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of Norway's recent matches

AI Predictor Forecast

Norway wins
14.0%
Draw
27.7%
France wins
58.3%
Most likely score
0-1
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Both teams to score
43%
Expected goals (xG)
0.73 - 1.77

💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction

Our AI said: France (58.3%, Odds 1.80)

✅ Correct prediction

Stake Total return Net profit
10 $ 18.00 $ +8.00 $
50 $ 90.00 $ +40.00 $
100 $ 180.00 $ +80.00 $
Try Premium for all predictions →

League standings

Norway
2 (6 pts)
France
1 (6 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Norway

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W W L W W L
4/6
W
0/6
D
2/6
L
Goals scored/match 2.17
Goals conceded/match 1.83
Both teams to score 100%
Over 2.5 goals 100%
  • 2026-06-16 Iraq 1-4 Norway
  • 2026-06-23 Norway 3-2 Senegal
  • 2026-06-26 Norway 1-4 France
  • 2026-06-30 Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway
  • 2026-07-05 Brazil 1-2 Norway
  • 2026-07-11 Norway 1-2 England

⚽ Top scorer : Erling Haaland (7)

Across its last 6 outings, Norway has 4 wins, 0 draw(s), and 2 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.17 goal(s)/match, defensive at 1.83. Both teams have scored in 100% of recent games.

France

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W W W W W W
6/6
W
0/6
D
0/6
L
Goals scored/match 2.67
Goals conceded/match 0.33
Both teams to score 33%
Over 2.5 goals 67%
  • 2026-06-16 France 3-1 Senegal
  • 2026-06-22 France 3-0 Iraq
  • 2026-06-26 Norway 1-4 France
  • 2026-06-30 France 3-0 Sweden
  • 2026-07-04 Paraguay 0-1 France
  • 2026-07-09 France 2-0 Morocco

⚽ Top scorer : Kylian Mbappé (8)

Across its last 6 outings, France has 6 wins, 0 draw(s), and 0 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.67 goal(s)/match, defensive at 0.33. Both teams have scored in 33% of recent games.

⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)

DateMatchCompetition
2026-06-26 Norway 1-4 FranceFIFA World Cup

Our analysis

Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (6 pts vs 6 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (0.73 vs 1.77). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited

Full analysis, AI prediction, conclusion and simulator reserved for Premium members.
Unlock Monthly · $0.99/mo

to asymmetric matches, returns a 14.0% probability of a Norway win.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 14.0% Norway win, 27.7% draw, 58.3% France win.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • Norway is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (2, 6 pts).
  • France sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 6 pts.
  • France is on a 6-match winning streak.
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of France's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
  • Norway relies on Erling Haaland (7) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.

Our verdict

Final prediction: edge to France (58.3% win probability) with a 0-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 43%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.

Frequently asked questions

When is Norway vs France played? +

The Norway - France match is scheduled for vendredi juin 26, 2026 at 19:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Norway and France? +

Our AI Predictor picks France as the favorite with a 58.3% win probability. Full odds: 14.0% for Norway, 27.7% draw, 58.3% for France.

What is the most likely score for Norway vs France? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 0-1, with expected goals (xG) of 0.73 for Norway and 1.77 for France.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 45% for this Norway - France fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

Full access right now

Scroll to Top