FIFA World Cup · Matchday 3
Recap: Norway vs France
Friday June 26, 2026 19:00 Match finished
Final score
1 – 4
The Norway - France match ended 1-4. Our AI prediction gave 14.0% for a Norway win, 27.7% for a draw, and 58.3% for France.
Tough mission for Norway against France (14.0% vs 58.3% per our AI). Home advantage weighs little against the form and table deficit. The match stays open, but the stats lean clearly.
For Norway (2), hosting France (1) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With France a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Norway: Erling Haaland (7)
- 🎯 Key scorer for France: Kylian Mbappé (8)
- 📊 Tight standings: Norway (2th) and France (1th) within 0 pts
- ⚽ Norway scores heavily: 2.17 goals/match average over last 6
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 100% of Norway's recent matches
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of Norway's recent matches
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: France (58.3%, Odds 1.80)
✅ Correct prediction
| Stake | Total return | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| 10 $ | 18.00 $ | +8.00 $ |
| 50 $ | 90.00 $ | +40.00 $ |
| 100 $ | 180.00 $ | +80.00 $ |
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Norway
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-16
- 2026-06-23
- 2026-06-26
- 2026-06-30
- 2026-07-05
- 2026-07-11
⚽ Top scorer : Erling Haaland (7)
Across its last 6 outings, Norway has 4 wins, 0 draw(s), and 2 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.17 goal(s)/match, defensive at 1.83. Both teams have scored in 100% of recent games.
France
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-16
- 2026-06-22
- 2026-06-26
- 2026-06-30
- 2026-07-04
- 2026-07-09
⚽ Top scorer : Kylian Mbappé (8)
Across its last 6 outings, France has 6 wins, 0 draw(s), and 0 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.67 goal(s)/match, defensive at 0.33. Both teams have scored in 33% of recent games.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Norway 1-4 France | FIFA World Cup |
Our analysis
Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (6 pts vs 6 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (0.73 vs 1.77). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited
to asymmetric matches, returns a 14.0% probability of a Norway win.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 14.0% Norway win, 27.7% draw, 58.3% France win.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Norway is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (2, 6 pts).
- ▸ France sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 6 pts.
- ▸ France is on a 6-match winning streak.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of France's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
- ▸ Norway relies on Erling Haaland (7) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to France (58.3% win probability) with a 0-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 43%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Norway vs France played? +
The Norway - France match is scheduled for vendredi juin 26, 2026 at 19:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between Norway and France? +
Our AI Predictor picks France as the favorite with a 58.3% win probability. Full odds: 14.0% for Norway, 27.7% draw, 58.3% for France.
What is the most likely score for Norway vs France? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 0-1, with expected goals (xG) of 0.73 for Norway and 1.77 for France.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 45% for this Norway - France fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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