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FIFA World Cup

Prediction: Norway vs England

Saturday July 11, 2026 21:00

Uncertain match expected on samedi juillet 11, 2026 between Norway and England. Our algorithm returns very close probabilities (34.7% / 25.6% / 39.7%), reflecting an evenly-matched duel on paper and in recent form.

For Norway (2), hosting England (1) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With England a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for Norway: Erling Haaland (7)
  • 🎯 Key scorer for England: Harry Kane (6)
  • 📊 Tight standings: Norway (2th) and England (1th) within 1 pts
  • ⚽ Norway scores heavily: 2.4 goals/match average over last 6
  • 🎯 Both teams scored in 100% of Norway's recent matches
  • 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of Norway's recent matches

AI Predictor Forecast

Norway wins
34.7%
Draw
25.6%
England wins
39.7%
Most likely score
1-2
Over 2.5 goals
75%
Both teams to score
74%
Expected goals (xG)
1.92 - 2.06

Bookmaker odds

Real 1X2 odds collected from the main bookmakers for this match. The best odds for each outcome are highlighted.

Value bet detected
Norway @ 4.20 — estimated +45.7% value according to our AI.
BookmakerNorwayDrawEngland
Unibet (SE) 4.20 3.45 2.00
Unibet (NL) 4.20 3.45 2.00
Matchbook 4.20 3.65 2.02
LeoVegas (SE) 4.10 3.35 1.96
Betfair 4.10 3.65 2.02
Pinnacle 4.05 3.63 1.95
1xBet 4.03 3.73 2.00
Everygame 4.00 3.60 1.91
Best odds4.203.732.03

Market implied probability: 24% / 27% / 49%.

Odds provided by the-odds-api.com · 06/07 08:30

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League standings

Norway
2 (6 pts)
England
1 (7 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Norway

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W W L W W
4/5
W
0/5
D
1/5
L
Goals scored/match 2.40
Goals conceded/match 1.80
Both teams to score 100%
Over 2.5 goals 100%
  • 2026-06-16 Iraq 1-4 Norway
  • 2026-06-23 Norway 3-2 Senegal
  • 2026-06-26 Norway 1-4 France
  • 2026-06-30 Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway
  • 2026-07-05 Brazil 1-2 Norway

⚽ Top scorer : Erling Haaland (7)

Across its last 6 outings, Norway has 4 wins, 0 draw(s), and 1 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.40 goal(s)/match, defensive at 1.80. Both teams have scored in 100% of recent games.

England

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W D W W W
4/5
W
1/5
D
0/5
L
Goals scored/match 2.20
Goals conceded/match 1.00
Both teams to score 60%
Over 2.5 goals 60%
  • 2026-06-17 England 4-2 Croatia
  • 2026-06-23 England 0-0 Ghana
  • 2026-06-27 Panama 0-2 England
  • 2026-07-01 England 2-1 Congo DR
  • 2026-07-06 Mexico 2-3 England

⚽ Top scorer : Harry Kane (6)

Across its last 6 outings, England has 4 wins, 1 draw(s), and 0 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.20 goal(s)/match, defensive at 1.00. Both teams have scored in 60% of recent games.

Our analysis

Statistically, Norway (2 place, 6 pts) hosts England (1 place, 7 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Norway and – for England) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.92 for Norway versus 2.06 for England, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-2.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 34.7% Norway win, 25.6% draw, 39.7% England win.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • Norway is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (2, 6 pts).
  • England sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 7 pts.
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
  • Norway relies on Erling Haaland (7) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
  • England relies on Harry Kane (6) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.

Our verdict

In short, England stands as our algorithm's favourite at 39.7%. The modelled scoreline sits around 1-2, and the Over 2.5 (75%) and BTTS (74%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.

Frequently asked questions

When is Norway vs England played? +

The Norway - England match is scheduled for samedi juillet 11, 2026 at 21:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Norway and England? +

Our AI Predictor picks England as the favorite with a 39.7% win probability. Full odds: 34.7% for Norway, 25.6% draw, 39.7% for England.

What is the most likely score for Norway vs England? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-2, with expected goals (xG) of 1.92 for Norway and 2.06 for England.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 75% for this Norway - England fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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