Premier League · Matchday 35
Recap: Leeds United FC vs Burnley FC
Friday May 1, 2026 19:00 Match finished
Final score
3 – 1
Match verdict: Leeds United FC 3-1 Burnley FC. Talacote's AI Predictor had projected a 1-1 scoreline — post-match analysis below.
Find our detailed analysis of Leeds United FC - Burnley FC, kicking off on Friday May 1, 2026. AI prediction, compared stats, recent form — everything you need before kick-off.
For Leeds United FC (40 pts on the board, 15 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Burnley FC (20 pts, 19) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🗓️ Matchday 35, Premier League
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: Leeds United (53.7%, Odds 1.96)
✅ Correct prediction
| Stake | Total return | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| 10 $ | 19.60 $ | +9.60 $ |
| 50 $ | 98.00 $ | +48.00 $ |
| 100 $ | 196.00 $ | +96.00 $ |
League standings
Our analysis
Historical data and current form converge for this match. Leeds United FC (form: –) meets Burnley FC (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 59
% and a BTTS of 59% — interesting markets for value bettors.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 53.7% / 22.5% / 23.8%.
Our verdict
In short, Leeds United FC stands as our algorithm's favourite at 53.7%. The modelled scoreline sits around 1-1, and the Over 2.5 (59%) and BTTS (59%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.
Frequently asked questions
When is Leeds United FC vs Burnley FC played? +
The Leeds United FC - Burnley FC match is scheduled for Friday May 1, 2026 at 19:00 in the Premier League.
Who is the favorite between Leeds United FC and Burnley FC? +
Our AI Predictor picks Leeds United FC as the favorite with a 53.7% win probability. Full odds: 53.7% for Leeds United, 22.5% draw, 23.8% for Burnley.
What is the most likely score for Leeds United FC vs Burnley FC? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.89 for Leeds United FC and 1.19 for Burnley FC.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 59% for this Leeds United FC - Burnley FC fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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