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Premier League · Matchday 35

Recap: Leeds United FC vs Burnley FC

Friday May 1, 2026 19:00 Match finished

Final score

3 1

Match verdict: Leeds United FC 3-1 Burnley FC. Talacote's AI Predictor had projected a 1-1 scoreline — post-match analysis below.

Find our detailed analysis of Leeds United FC - Burnley FC, kicking off on Friday May 1, 2026. AI prediction, compared stats, recent form — everything you need before kick-off.

For Leeds United FC (40 pts on the board, 15 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Burnley FC (20 pts, 19) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.

Key takeaways

  • 🗓️ Matchday 35, Premier League

AI Predictor Forecast

Leeds United wins
53.7%
Draw
22.5%
Burnley wins
23.8%
Most likely score
1-1
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams to score
59%
Expected goals (xG)
1.89 - 1.19

💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction

Our AI said: Leeds United (53.7%, Odds 1.96)

✅ Correct prediction

Stake Total return Net profit
10 $ 19.60 $ +9.60 $
50 $ 98.00 $ +48.00 $
100 $ 196.00 $ +96.00 $
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League standings

Leeds United FC
15 (40 pts)
Burnley FC
19 (20 pts)

Our analysis

Historical data and current form converge for this match. Leeds United FC (form: –) meets Burnley FC (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 59

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% and a BTTS of 59% — interesting markets for value bettors.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 53.7% / 22.5% / 23.8%.

Our verdict

In short, Leeds United FC stands as our algorithm's favourite at 53.7%. The modelled scoreline sits around 1-1, and the Over 2.5 (59%) and BTTS (59%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.

Frequently asked questions

When is Leeds United FC vs Burnley FC played? +

The Leeds United FC - Burnley FC match is scheduled for Friday May 1, 2026 at 19:00 in the Premier League.

Who is the favorite between Leeds United FC and Burnley FC? +

Our AI Predictor picks Leeds United FC as the favorite with a 53.7% win probability. Full odds: 53.7% for Leeds United, 22.5% draw, 23.8% for Burnley.

What is the most likely score for Leeds United FC vs Burnley FC? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.89 for Leeds United FC and 1.19 for Burnley FC.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 59% for this Leeds United FC - Burnley FC fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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