Ligue 1 · Matchday 11
Prediction: ES Troyes AC vs Le Havre AC
Friday, 20 November 2026 19:45 UK time
Our AI makes Le Havre AC the favourite for ES Troyes AC vs Le Havre AC, with a 36.8% win probability. Kick-off: Friday, 20 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Balanced fixture for ES Troyes AC - Le Havre AC on Friday, 20 November 2026. No clear AI favorite: 32.0% home, 31.3% draw, 36.8% away. Statistical details settle the duel on the margins.
For ES Troyes AC (4 pts on the board, 17 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Le Havre AC (2 pts, 18) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 📊 Tight standings: ES Troyes AC (17th) and Le Havre AC (18th) within 2 pts
- 🗓️ Matchday 11, Ligue 1
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Our analysis
Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (4 pts vs 2 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (1.31 vs 1.43). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited to asymmetric matches, returns a 32.0% probability of a ES Troyes AC win.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 32.0% / 31.3% / 36.8%.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to Le Havre AC (36.8% win probability) with a 1-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 57%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is ES Troyes AC vs Le Havre AC played? +
The ES Troyes AC - Le Havre AC match is scheduled for Friday, 20 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time in the Ligue 1.
Who is the favorite between ES Troyes AC and Le Havre AC? +
Our AI Predictor picks Le Havre AC as the favorite with a 36.8% win probability. Full odds: 32.0% for Troyes, 31.3% draw, 36.8% for Le Havre.
What is the most likely score for ES Troyes AC vs Le Havre AC? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.31 for ES Troyes AC and 1.43 for Le Havre AC.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 52% for this ES Troyes AC - Le Havre AC fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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