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La Liga · Matchday 13

Prediction: CA Osasuna vs Málaga CF

Sunday, 22 November 2026 17:30 UK time

Our AI makes CA Osasuna the favourite for CA Osasuna vs Málaga CF, with a 43.2% win probability. Kick-off: Sunday, 22 November 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Find our detailed analysis of CA Osasuna - Málaga CF, kicking off on Sunday, 22 November 2026. AI prediction, compared stats, recent form — everything you need before kick-off.

For CA Osasuna (15), hosting Málaga CF (20) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With CA Osasuna a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.

Key takeaways

🗓️ Matchday 13, La Liga

AI Predictor Forecast

Osasuna wins

43.2%

Draw

29.4%

Málaga wins

27.4%

Most likely score

1-1

Over 2.5 goals

57%

Both teams to score

60%

Expected goals (xG)

1.67 - 1.30

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League standings

CA Osasuna

15 (11 pts)

Málaga CF

20 (5 pts)

Our analysis

Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (11 pts vs 5 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (1.67 vs 1.30). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited to asymmetric matches, returns a 43.2% probability of a CA Osasuna win.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 43.2% Osasuna win, 29.4% draw, 27.4% Málaga win.

Our verdict

Final prediction: edge to CA Osasuna (43.2% win probability) with a 1-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 60%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.

Frequently asked questions

When is CA Osasuna vs Málaga CF played? +

The CA Osasuna - Málaga CF match is scheduled for Sunday, 22 November 2026 at 17:30 UK time in the La Liga.

Who is the favorite between CA Osasuna and Málaga CF? +

Our AI Predictor picks CA Osasuna as the favorite with a 43.2% win probability. Full odds: 43.2% for Osasuna, 29.4% draw, 27.4% for Málaga.

What is the most likely score for CA Osasuna vs Málaga CF? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.67 for CA Osasuna and 1.30 for Málaga CF.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 57% for this CA Osasuna - Málaga CF fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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