Serie A · Matchday 11
Prediction: AS Roma vs US Sassuolo Calcio
Saturday, 7 November 2026 19:45 UK time
Our AI makes AS Roma the favourite for AS Roma vs US Sassuolo Calcio, with a 65.9% win probability. Kick-off: Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
AS Roma faces US Sassuolo Calcio on Saturday, 7 November 2026 as a clear-cut favorite. Our AI Predictor gives AS Roma a 65.9% win probability — a sharp imbalance backed by table position and current form. Full analysis below.
AS Roma (rank 3, 17 pts) is looking to string together strong results against US Sassuolo Calcio (rank 13, 8 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this Serie A fixture.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for AS Roma: Donyell Malen (6)
- 🎯 Key scorer for US Sassuolo Calcio: Vasilije Adzic (3)
- 📊 League gap: AS Roma (3th) vs US Sassuolo Calcio (13th)
- ⚽ AS Roma scores heavily: 2.17 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 11, Serie A
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
AS Roma
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-09-14
- 2026-09-19
- 2026-10-11
- 2026-10-14
- 2026-10-17
- 2026-10-20
⚽ Top scorer : Donyell Malen (6)
AS Roma arrives with a 3W/2D/1L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 2.17 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.00. Over 2.5 goals at 50%, BTTS at 33%.
US Sassuolo Calcio
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-06
- 2026-09-13
- 2026-09-18
- 2026-10-11
- 2026-10-16
⚽ Top scorer : Vasilije Adzic (3)
US Sassuolo Calcio arrives with a 2W/2D/2L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.83 goal(s) on average and conceding 2.00. Over 2.5 goals at 83%, BTTS at 100%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | AS Roma 2-0 US Sassuolo Calcio | Serie A |
| 2025-10-26 | US Sassuolo Calcio 0-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-03-17 | AS Roma 1-0 US Sassuolo Calcio | Serie A |
| 2023-12-03 | US Sassuolo Calcio 1-2 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 2023-03-12 | AS Roma 3-4 US Sassuolo Calcio | Serie A |
Our analysis
Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (17 pts vs 8 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (2.46 vs 1.02). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited to asymmetric matches, returns a 65.9% probability of a AS Roma win.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 65.9% / 21.4% / 12.7% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ AS Roma is in the top 3 of Serie A (3, 17 pts).
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 83% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 100% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches.
- ▸ AS Roma relies on Donyell Malen (6) as the Serie A top scorer.
- ▸ US Sassuolo Calcio relies on Vasilije Adzic (3) as the Serie A top scorer.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a AS Roma win (65.9%) with a typical scoreline of 2-1. Worth noting the 67% Over 2.5 reading and the 59% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is AS Roma vs US Sassuolo Calcio played? +
The AS Roma - US Sassuolo Calcio match is scheduled for Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 19:45 UK time in the Serie A.
Who is the favorite between AS Roma and US Sassuolo Calcio? +
Our AI Predictor picks AS Roma as the favorite with a 65.9% win probability. Full odds: 65.9% for Roma, 21.4% draw, 12.7% for Sassuolo.
What is the most likely score for AS Roma vs US Sassuolo Calcio? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 2-1, with expected goals (xG) of 2.46 for AS Roma and 1.02 for US Sassuolo Calcio.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 67% for this AS Roma - US Sassuolo Calcio fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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