Bundesliga · Matchday 9
Prediction: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Sunday, 8 November 2026 14:30 UK time
Our AI makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen the favourite for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen, with a 46.8% win probability. Kick-off: Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
On Sunday, 8 November 2026, 1. FC Köln and Bayer 04 Leverkusen face off in the Bundesliga. Talacote's AI Predictor ran this match through Poisson, ELO, and Dixon-Coles models: our forecast gives Bayer 04 Leverkusen a slight edge.
1. FC Köln (rank 12, 7 pts) is looking to string together strong results against Bayer 04 Leverkusen (rank 4, 13 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this Bundesliga fixture.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for 1. FC Köln: Said El Mala (2)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Patrik Schick (5)
- 📊 League gap: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4th) vs 1. FC Köln (12th)
- ⚽ Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores heavily: 2.8 goals/match average over last 6
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 83% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches
AI Predictor Forecast
Simulate your bet on this match
Pick your bet
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
1. FC Köln
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-04
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
- 2026-10-11
- 2026-10-16
⚽ Top scorer : Said El Mala (2)
1. FC Köln arrives with a 2W/1D/3L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.33 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.83. Over 2.5 goals at 67%, BTTS at 83%.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-05
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-20
- 2026-10-10
⚽ Top scorer : Patrik Schick (5)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen arrives with a 3W/1D/1L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 2.80 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.60. Over 2.5 goals at 80%, BTTS at 60%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-13 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-0 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-03 | 1. FC Köln 0-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-08 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-0 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
Our analysis
Historical data and current form converge for this match. 1. FC Köln (form: –) meets Bayer 04 Leverkusen (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 73% and a BTTS of 72% — interesting markets for value bettors.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 27.8% / 25.4% / 46.8%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 80% of Bayer 04 Leverkusen's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 83% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches.
- ▸ 1. FC Köln relies on Said El Mala (2) as the Bundesliga top scorer.
- ▸ Bayer 04 Leverkusen relies on Patrik Schick (5) as the Bundesliga top scorer.
Our verdict
In short, Bayer 04 Leverkusen stands as our algorithm's favourite at 46.8%. The modelled scoreline sits around 1-1, and the Over 2.5 (73%) and BTTS (72%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.
Frequently asked questions
When is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen played? +
The 1. FC Köln - Bayer 04 Leverkusen match is scheduled for Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 14:30 UK time in the Bundesliga.
Who is the favorite between 1. FC Köln and Bayer 04 Leverkusen? +
Our AI Predictor picks Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the favorite with a 46.8% win probability. Full odds: 27.8% for 1. FC Köln, 25.4% draw, 46.8% for Leverkusen.
What is the most likely score for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.63 for 1. FC Köln and 2.14 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 73% for this 1. FC Köln - Bayer 04 Leverkusen fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
Full access right now