La Liga · Matchday 7
Recap: Villarreal CF vs Levante UD
Sunday, 20 September 2026 17:30 UK time Match finished
Final score
3 – 1
Match over: Villarreal CF 3-1 Levante UD. Our initial AI prediction had Villarreal CF favored at 45.3%. Compare reality with probabilities to calibrate your read on upcoming La Liga matches.
The clash between Villarreal CF and Levante UD promises plenty of drama in the La Liga. Our AI Predictor analyzed this Sunday, 20 September 2026 fixture and favors Villarreal CF with a 45.3% win probability.
Villarreal CF (15 in the La Liga, 5 pts) faces this match as a benchmark test on home soil. Levante UD (16, 5 pts) needs to confirm its standing to avoid letting the gap widen down the stretch.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Villarreal CF: Pape Gueye (1)
- 📊 Tight standings: Villarreal CF (15th) and Levante UD (16th) within 0 pts
- ⚽ Villarreal CF scores heavily: 2 goals/match average over last 6
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 100% of Villarreal CF's recent matches
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of Villarreal CF's recent matches
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: Villarreal (45.3%, Odds 2.32)
✅ Correct prediction
| Stake | Total return | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| 10 $ | 23.20 $ | +13.20 $ |
| 50 $ | 116.00 $ | +66.00 $ |
| 100 $ | 232.00 $ | +132.00 $ |
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Villarreal CF
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-16
- 2026-08-23
⚽ Top scorer : Pape Gueye (1)
Recent record for Villarreal CF: 0W-2D-0L over the last 6 matches. 2.00 goal(s) scored on average vs 2.00 conceded. BTTS observed at 100%, Over 2.5 at 100%.
Levante UD
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-16
- 2026-08-24
Recent record for Levante UD: 0W-1D-1L over the last 6 matches. 0.00 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.50 conceded. BTTS observed at 0%, Over 2.5 at 50%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Villarreal CF 5-1 Levante UD | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-18 | Levante UD 0-1 Villarreal CF | Primera Division |
| 2022-04-02 | Levante UD 2-0 Villarreal CF | Primera Division |
| 2022-01-03 | Villarreal CF 5-0 Levante UD | Primera Division |
| 2021-04-18 | Levante UD 1-5 Villarreal CF | Primera Division |
Our analysis
The table gap between Villarreal CF (15 place) and Levante UD (16 place) partly explains our AI's confidence in Villarreal CF. Expected goals are 1.99 for Villarreal and 1.54 for Levante, steering the model toward a win for the dominant side. Recent history backs this trend.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The weighting engine combines offensive/defensive xG (35% weight), 5-match form dynamics (28%), standings and points (20%), head-to-head (12%), and home advantage (5%). Final 1X2 result lands at 45.3% / 26.5% / 28.1%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Villarreal CF's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 100% of Villarreal CF's recent matches.
- ▸ Villarreal CF relies on Pape Gueye (1) as the La Liga top scorer.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a Villarreal CF win (45.3%) with a typical scoreline of 1-1. Worth noting the 68% Over 2.5 reading and the 67% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is Villarreal CF vs Levante UD played? +
The Villarreal CF - Levante UD match is scheduled for Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 17:30 UK time in the La Liga.
Who is the favorite between Villarreal CF and Levante UD? +
Our AI Predictor picks Villarreal CF as the favorite with a 45.3% win probability. Full odds: 45.3% for Villarreal, 26.5% draw, 28.1% for Levante.
What is the most likely score for Villarreal CF vs Levante UD? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.99 for Villarreal CF and 1.54 for Levante UD.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 68% for this Villarreal CF - Levante UD fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
Full access right now