Serie A · Matchday 9
Prediction: US Sassuolo Calcio vs SS Lazio
Tuesday October 27, 2026 17:30
Uncertain match expected on mardi octobre 27, 2026 between US Sassuolo Calcio and SS Lazio. Our algorithm returns very close probabilities (30.6% / 29.3% / 40.1%), reflecting an evenly-matched duel on paper and in recent form.
For US Sassuolo Calcio (7 pts on the board, 10 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. SS Lazio (13 pts, 3) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for US Sassuolo Calcio: Vasilije Adzic (3)
- 🎯 Key scorer for SS Lazio: Davide Frattesi (3)
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 100% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches
- 🗓️ Matchday 9, Serie A
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
US Sassuolo Calcio
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-23
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-06
- 2026-09-13
- 2026-09-18
⚽ Top scorer : Vasilije Adzic (3)
US Sassuolo Calcio form: 2 wins, 1 draw(s), and 2 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.80) and defensive average (1.80) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 100%.
SS Lazio
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-24
- 2026-08-30
- 2026-09-07
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
⚽ Top scorer : Davide Frattesi (3)
SS Lazio form: 4 wins, 1 draw(s), and 0 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.60) and defensive average (0.60) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 40%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | SS Lazio 2-1 US Sassuolo Calcio | Serie A |
| 2025-09-14 | US Sassuolo Calcio 1-0 SS Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-05-26 | SS Lazio 1-1 US Sassuolo Calcio | Serie A |
| 2023-10-21 | US Sassuolo Calcio 0-2 SS Lazio | Serie A |
| 2023-05-03 | SS Lazio 2-0 US Sassuolo Calcio | Serie A |
Our analysis
Statistically, US Sassuolo Calcio (10 place, 7 pts) hosts SS Lazio (3 place, 13 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for US Sassuolo Calcio and – for SS Lazio) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.38 for US Sassuolo Calcio versus 1.62 for SS Lazio, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 30.6% / 29.3% / 40.1%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ SS Lazio is in the top 3 of Serie A (3, 13 pts).
- ▸ SS Lazio is on a 3-match winning streak.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 100% of US Sassuolo Calcio's recent matches.
- ▸ US Sassuolo Calcio relies on Vasilije Adzic (3) as the Serie A top scorer.
- ▸ SS Lazio relies on Davide Frattesi (3) as the Serie A top scorer.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to SS Lazio (40.1% win probability) with a 1-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 60%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is US Sassuolo Calcio vs SS Lazio played? +
The US Sassuolo Calcio - SS Lazio match is scheduled for mardi octobre 27, 2026 at 17:30 in the Serie A.
Who is the favorite between US Sassuolo Calcio and SS Lazio? +
Our AI Predictor picks SS Lazio as the favorite with a 40.1% win probability. Full odds: 30.6% for Sassuolo, 29.3% draw, 40.1% for Lazio.
What is the most likely score for US Sassuolo Calcio vs SS Lazio? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.38 for US Sassuolo Calcio and 1.62 for SS Lazio.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 57% for this US Sassuolo Calcio - SS Lazio fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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