FIFA World Cup · Matchday 3
Recap: Uruguay vs Spain
Saturday June 27, 2026 00:00 Match finished
Final score
0 – 1
The Uruguay - Spain match ended 0-1. Our AI prediction gave 22.5% for a Uruguay win, 31.2% for a draw, and 46.3% for Spain.
AI prognosis is unfavorable for Uruguay on samedi juin 27, 2026: 22.5% chance of beating Spain (46.3%). Standings, recent form, and head-to-head all contribute to this statistical verdict.
For Uruguay (2 pts on the board, 2 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Spain (4 pts, 1) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Spain: Mikel Oyarzabal (4)
- 📊 Tight standings: Uruguay (2th) and Spain (1th) within 2 pts
- 🗓️ Matchday 3, FIFA World Cup
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: Spain (46.3%, Odds 2.27)
✅ Correct prediction
| Stake | Total return | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| 10 $ | 22.70 $ | +12.70 $ |
| 50 $ | 113.50 $ | +63.50 $ |
| 100 $ | 227.00 $ | +127.00 $ |
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Uruguay
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-15
- 2026-06-21
- 2026-06-27
Uruguay form: 0 wins, 2 draw(s), and 1 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.00) and defensive average (1.33) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 33%.
Spain
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-15
- 2026-06-21
- 2026-06-27
- 2026-07-02
- 2026-07-06
- 2026-07-10
⚽ Top scorer : Mikel Oyarzabal (4)
Spain form: 5 wins, 1 draw(s), and 0 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.83) and defensive average (0.17) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 50%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Uruguay 0-1 Spain | FIFA World Cup |
Our analysis
Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (2 pts vs 4 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (0.98 vs 1.52). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited
to asymmetric matches, returns a 22.5% probability of a Uruguay win.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 22.5% Uruguay win, 31.2% draw, 46.3% Spain win.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Uruguay is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (2, 2 pts).
- ▸ Spain sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 4 pts.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 67% of Uruguay's recent matches.
- ▸ Spain relies on Mikel Oyarzabal (4) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to Spain (46.3% win probability) with a 0-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 49%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Uruguay vs Spain played? +
The Uruguay - Spain match is scheduled for samedi juin 27, 2026 at 00:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between Uruguay and Spain? +
Our AI Predictor picks Spain as the favorite with a 46.3% win probability. Full odds: 22.5% for Uruguay, 31.2% draw, 46.3% for Spain.
What is the most likely score for Uruguay vs Spain? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 0-1, with expected goals (xG) of 0.98 for Uruguay and 1.52 for Spain.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 46% for this Uruguay - Spain fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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