FIFA World Cup · Matchday 1
Recap: United States vs Paraguay
Saturday June 13, 2026 01:00 Match finished
Final score
4 – 1
Match over: United States 4-1 Paraguay. Our initial AI prediction had United States favored at 44.7%. Compare reality with probabilities to calibrate your read on upcoming FIFA World Cup matches.
On samedi juin 13, 2026, United States and Paraguay face off in the FIFA World Cup. Talacote's AI Predictor ran this match through Poisson, ELO, and Dixon-Coles models: our forecast gives United States a slight edge.
For United States (1), hosting Paraguay (1) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With United States a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for United States: Folarin Balogun (2)
- 📊 Tight standings: United States (1th) and Paraguay (1th) within 0 pts
- ⚽ United States scores heavily: 3 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 1, FIFA World Cup
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: USA (44.7%, Odds 2.36)
✅ Correct prediction
| Stake | Total return | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| 10 $ | 23.60 $ | +13.60 $ |
| 50 $ | 118.00 $ | +68.00 $ |
| 100 $ | 236.00 $ | +136.00 $ |
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
United States
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-13
- 2026-06-19
⚽ Top scorer : Folarin Balogun (2)
Across its last 6 outings, United States has 2 wins, 0 draw(s), and 0 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 3.00 goal(s)/match, defensive at 0.50. Both teams have scored in 50% of recent games.
Paraguay
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-13
- 2026-06-20
Across its last 6 outings, Paraguay has 1 wins, 0 draw(s), and 1 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 1.00 goal(s)/match, defensive at 2.00. Both teams have scored in 50% of recent games.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | United States 4-1 Paraguay | FIFA World Cup |
Our analysis
Historical data and current form converge for this match. United States (form: –) meets Paraguay (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 46% an
d a BTTS of 49% — interesting markets for value bettors.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 44.7% / 31.5% / 23.9% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ United States sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 0 pts.
- ▸ Paraguay sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 0 pts.
- ▸ United States relies on Folarin Balogun (2) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a United States win (44.7%) with a typical scoreline of 1-1. Worth noting the 46% Over 2.5 reading and the 49% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is United States vs Paraguay played? +
The United States - Paraguay match is scheduled for samedi juin 13, 2026 at 01:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between United States and Paraguay? +
Our AI Predictor picks United States as the favorite with a 44.7% win probability. Full odds: 44.7% for USA, 31.5% draw, 23.9% for Paraguay.
What is the most likely score for United States vs Paraguay? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.49 for United States and 1.01 for Paraguay.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 46% for this United States - Paraguay fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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