FIFA World Cup · Matchday 3
Prediction: Senegal vs Iraq
Friday June 26, 2026 19:00
On vendredi juin 26, 2026, Senegal and Iraq face off in the FIFA World Cup. Talacote's AI Predictor ran this match through Poisson, ELO, and Dixon-Coles models: our forecast gives Senegal a slight edge.
For Senegal (0 pts on the board, 3 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Iraq (0 pts, 1) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 📊 Tight standings: Senegal (3th) and Iraq (1th) within 0 pts
- 🗓️ Matchday 3, FIFA World Cup
AI Predictor Forecast
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This simulation uses 1 of 3 AI algorithms. Premium unlocks all 3 for sharper predictions.
League standings
Our analysis
Historical data and current form converge for this match. Senegal (form: –) meets Iraq (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 45% and a BTTS o
f 45% — interesting markets for value bettors.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 54.5% Senegal win, 29.0% draw, 16.5% Iraq win.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to Senegal (54.5% win probability) with a 1-0 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 45%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Senegal vs Iraq played? +
The Senegal - Iraq match is scheduled for vendredi juin 26, 2026 at 19:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between Senegal and Iraq? +
Our AI Predictor picks Senegal as the favorite with a 54.5% win probability. Full odds: 54.5% for Senegal, 29.0% draw, 16.5% for Iraq.
What is the most likely score for Senegal vs Iraq? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.69 for Senegal and 0.81 for Iraq.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 45% for this Senegal - Iraq fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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