FIFA World Cup · Matchday 3
Recap: Senegal vs Iraq
Friday June 26, 2026 19:00 Match finished
Final score
5 – 0
The Senegal - Iraq match ended 5-0. Our AI prediction gave 54.5% for a Senegal win, 29.0% for a draw, and 16.5% for Iraq.
On vendredi juin 26, 2026, Senegal and Iraq face off in the FIFA World Cup. Talacote's AI Predictor ran this match through Poisson, ELO, and Dixon-Coles models: our forecast gives Senegal a slight edge.
For Senegal (0 pts on the board, 3 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Iraq (0 pts, 4) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Senegal: Ismaïla Sarr (4)
- 📊 Tight standings: Senegal (3th) and Iraq (4th) within 0 pts
- ⚽ Senegal scores heavily: 2.5 goals/match average over last 6
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 75% of Senegal's recent matches
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of Senegal's recent matches
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: Senegal (54.5%, Odds 1.93)
✅ Correct prediction
| Stake | Total return | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| 10 $ | 19.30 $ | +9.30 $ |
| 50 $ | 96.50 $ | +46.50 $ |
| 100 $ | 193.00 $ | +93.00 $ |
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Senegal
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-16
- 2026-06-23
- 2026-06-26
- 2026-07-01
⚽ Top scorer : Ismaïla Sarr (4)
Senegal form: 1 wins, 0 draw(s), and 3 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (2.50) and defensive average (2.25) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 100%.
Iraq
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-16
- 2026-06-22
- 2026-06-26
Iraq form: 0 wins, 0 draw(s), and 3 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (0.33) and defensive average (4.00) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 100%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Senegal 5-0 Iraq | FIFA World Cup |
Our analysis
Historical data and current form converge for this match. Senegal (form: –) meets Iraq (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 45% and a BTTS o
f 45% — interesting markets for value bettors.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 54.5% Senegal win, 29.0% draw, 16.5% Iraq win.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Senegal is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (3, 0 pts).
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Senegal's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Iraq's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 75% of Senegal's recent matches.
- ▸ Senegal relies on Ismaïla Sarr (4) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to Senegal (54.5% win probability) with a 1-0 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 45%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Senegal vs Iraq played? +
The Senegal - Iraq match is scheduled for vendredi juin 26, 2026 at 19:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between Senegal and Iraq? +
Our AI Predictor picks Senegal as the favorite with a 54.5% win probability. Full odds: 54.5% for Senegal, 29.0% draw, 16.5% for Iraq.
What is the most likely score for Senegal vs Iraq? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.69 for Senegal and 0.81 for Iraq.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 45% for this Senegal - Iraq fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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