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FIFA World Cup · Matchday 2

Recap: Panama vs Croatia

Tuesday June 23, 2026 23:00 Match finished

Final score

0 1

Match over: Panama 0-1 Croatia. Our initial AI prediction had Croatia favored at 58.3%. Compare reality with probabilities to calibrate your read on upcoming FIFA World Cup matches.

AI prognosis is unfavorable for Panama on mardi juin 23, 2026: 14.0% chance of beating Croatia (58.3%). Standings, recent form, and head-to-head all contribute to this statistical verdict.

Panama (3 in the FIFA World Cup, 0 pts) faces this match as a benchmark test on home soil. Croatia (4, 0 pts) needs to confirm its standing to avoid letting the gap widen down the stretch.

Key takeaways

  • 📊 Tight standings: Panama (3th) and Croatia (4th) within 0 pts
  • 🗓️ Matchday 2, FIFA World Cup

AI Predictor Forecast

Panama wins
14.0%
Draw
27.7%
Croatia wins
58.3%
Most likely score
0-1
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Both teams to score
43%
Expected goals (xG)
0.73 - 1.77

💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction

Our AI said: Croatia (58.3%, Odds 1.80)

✅ Correct prediction

Stake Total return Net profit
10 $ 18.00 $ +8.00 $
50 $ 90.00 $ +40.00 $
100 $ 180.00 $ +80.00 $
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League standings

Panama
3 (0 pts)
Croatia
4 (0 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Panama

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

L L L
0/3
W
0/3
D
3/3
L
Goals scored/match 0.00
Goals conceded/match 1.33
Both teams to score 0%
Over 2.5 goals 0%
  • 2026-06-17 Ghana 1-0 Panama
  • 2026-06-23 Panama 0-1 Croatia
  • 2026-06-27 Panama 0-2 England

Recent record for Panama: 0W-0D-3L over the last 6 matches. 0.00 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.33 conceded. BTTS observed at 0%, Over 2.5 at 0%.

Croatia

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

L W W L
2/4
W
0/4
D
2/4
L
Goals scored/match 1.50
Goals conceded/match 1.75
Both teams to score 75%
Over 2.5 goals 75%
  • 2026-06-17 England 4-2 Croatia
  • 2026-06-23 Panama 0-1 Croatia
  • 2026-06-27 Croatia 2-1 Ghana
  • 2026-07-02 Portugal 2-1 Croatia

Recent record for Croatia: 2W-0D-2L over the last 6 matches. 1.50 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.75 conceded. BTTS observed at 75%, Over 2.5 at 75%.

⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)

DateMatchCompetition
2026-06-23 Panama 0-1 CroatiaFIFA World Cup

Our analysis

Historical data and current form converge for this match. Panama (form: –) meets Croatia (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 45% and a BTTS

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of 43% — interesting markets for value bettors.

How our AI reaches this prediction

The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 14.0% / 27.7% / 58.3% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 0-1.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • Panama is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (3, 0 pts).
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 75% of Croatia's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 75% of Croatia's recent matches.

Our verdict

Bottom line: our models converge on a Croatia win (58.3%) with a typical scoreline of 0-1. Worth noting the 45% Over 2.5 reading and the 43% BTTS — two markets to study.

Frequently asked questions

When is Panama vs Croatia played? +

The Panama - Croatia match is scheduled for mardi juin 23, 2026 at 23:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Panama and Croatia? +

Our AI Predictor picks Croatia as the favorite with a 58.3% win probability. Full odds: 14.0% for Panama, 27.7% draw, 58.3% for Croatia.

What is the most likely score for Panama vs Croatia? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 0-1, with expected goals (xG) of 0.73 for Panama and 1.77 for Croatia.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 45% for this Panama - Croatia fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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