Skip to content
Talacote.com
Statistical prediction — not a guaranteed-win system. Probabilities computed via Poisson + ELO + Dixon-Coles on public data.  ·  See methodology  ·  Responsible Gambling

Ligue 1 · Matchday 7

Prediction: Olympique Lyonnais vs OGC Nice

Sunday October 18, 2026 18:45

Match looks lopsided on paper this dimanche octobre 18, 2026: Olympique Lyonnais hosts OGC Nice with a 66.4% AI win probability. Standings, recent dynamics, and xG all tilt heavily toward the home side. But football stays unpredictable — here's why.

For Olympique Lyonnais (2), hosting OGC Nice (14) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With Olympique Lyonnais a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for Olympique Lyonnais: Ernest Nuamah (3)
  • 📊 League gap: Olympique Lyonnais (2th) vs OGC Nice (14th)
  • ⚽ Olympique Lyonnais scores heavily: 2 goals/match average over last 6
  • 🗓️ Matchday 7, Ligue 1

AI Predictor Forecast

Olympique Lyon wins
66.4%
Draw
25.3%
Nice wins
8.3%
Most likely score
1-0
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Both teams to score
32%
Expected goals (xG)
1.84 - 0.48

Simulate your bet on this match

$

Pick your bet

Free preview
This prediction uses only 1 of 3 AI algorithms — about 33% of the computing power. Premium activates all 3 (Poisson + ELO + Dixon-Coles) for far sharper predictions.
If you win, you walk away with
Net profit :

League standings

Olympique Lyonnais
2 (11 pts)
OGC Nice
14 (5 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Olympique Lyonnais

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W D W D W
3/5
W
2/5
D
0/5
L
Goals scored/match 2.00
Goals conceded/match 0.40
Both teams to score 40%
Over 2.5 goals 40%
  • 2026-08-22 Toulouse FC 0-2 Olympique Lyonnais
  • 2026-08-29 Olympique Lyonnais 1-1 Le Havre AC
  • 2026-09-04 Olympique Lyonnais 3-1 AJ Auxerre
  • 2026-09-12 Paris FC 0-0 Olympique Lyonnais
  • 2026-09-19 Olympique Lyonnais 4-0 Stade Rennais FC 1901

⚽ Top scorer : Ernest Nuamah (3)

Across its last 6 outings, Olympique Lyonnais has 3 wins, 2 draw(s), and 0 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.00 goal(s)/match, defensive at 0.40. Both teams have scored in 40% of recent games.

OGC Nice

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

D L D L W
1/5
W
2/5
D
2/5
L
Goals scored/match 0.60
Goals conceded/match 1.20
Both teams to score 40%
Over 2.5 goals 40%
  • 2026-08-22 OGC Nice 0-0 FC Lorient
  • 2026-08-30 Paris FC 3-0 OGC Nice
  • 2026-09-05 OGC Nice 1-1 Le Mans FC
  • 2026-09-12 AJ Auxerre 1-0 OGC Nice
  • 2026-09-20 OGC Nice 2-1 Lille OSC

Across its last 6 outings, OGC Nice has 1 wins, 2 draw(s), and 2 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 0.60 goal(s)/match, defensive at 1.20. Both teams have scored in 40% of recent games.

⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)

DateMatchCompetition
2026-02-15 Olympique Lyonnais 2-0 OGC NiceLigue 1
2025-10-18 OGC Nice 3-2 Olympique LyonnaisLigue 1
2025-03-09 OGC Nice 0-2 Olympique LyonnaisLigue 1
2024-12-01 Olympique Lyonnais 4-1 OGC NiceLigue 1
2024-02-16 Olympique Lyonnais 1-0 OGC NiceLigue 1

Our analysis

Statistically, Olympique Lyonnais (2 place, 11 pts) hosts OGC Nice (14 place, 5 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Olympique Lyonnais and – for OGC Nice) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.84 for Olympique Lyonnais versus 0.48 for OGC Nice, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-0.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 66.4% Olympique Lyon win, 25.3% draw, 8.3% Nice win.

Our verdict

In short, Olympique Lyonnais stands as our algorithm's favourite at 66.4%. The modelled scoreline sits around 1-0, and the Over 2.5 (41%) and BTTS (32%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.

Frequently asked questions

When is Olympique Lyonnais vs OGC Nice played? +

The Olympique Lyonnais - OGC Nice match is scheduled for dimanche octobre 18, 2026 at 18:45 in the Ligue 1.

Who is the favorite between Olympique Lyonnais and OGC Nice? +

Our AI Predictor picks Olympique Lyonnais as the favorite with a 66.4% win probability. Full odds: 66.4% for Olympique Lyon, 25.3% draw, 8.3% for Nice.

What is the most likely score for Olympique Lyonnais vs OGC Nice? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.84 for Olympique Lyonnais and 0.48 for OGC Nice.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 41% for this Olympique Lyonnais - OGC Nice fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

Full access right now

Scroll to Top