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FIFA World Cup · Matchday 2

Prediction: Norway vs Senegal

Tuesday June 23, 2026 00:00

Balanced fixture for Norway - Senegal on mardi juin 23, 2026. No clear AI favorite: 29.8% home, 32.3% draw, 37.8% away. Statistical details settle the duel on the margins.

Norway (1 in the FIFA World Cup, 3 pts) faces this match as a benchmark test on home soil. Senegal (3, 0 pts) needs to confirm its standing to avoid letting the gap widen down the stretch.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for Norway: Erling Haaland (2)
  • 📊 Tight standings: Norway (1th) and Senegal (3th) within 3 pts
  • ⚽ Norway scores heavily: 4 goals/match average over last 6
  • 🎯 Both teams scored in 100% of Norway's recent matches
  • 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of Norway's recent matches

AI Predictor Forecast

Norway wins
29.8%
Draw
32.3%
Senegal wins
37.8%
Most likely score
1-1
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams to score
51%
Expected goals (xG)
1.16 - 1.34

Bookmaker odds

Real 1X2 odds collected from the main bookmakers for this match. The best odds for each outcome are highlighted.

BookmakerNorwayDrawSenegal
Betfair 2.36 3.65 3.25
Matchbook 2.36 3.65 3.25
1xBet 2.34 3.59 3.23
Unibet (NL) 2.32 3.55 3.25
Unibet (SE) 2.32 3.55 3.25
GTbets 2.31 3.46 3.11
Coolbet 2.30 3.62 3.20
Betsson 2.30 3.55 3.15
Best odds2.363.653.27

Market implied probability: 42% / 27% / 31%.

Odds provided by the-odds-api.com · 21/06 08:30

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League standings

Norway
1 (3 pts)
Senegal
3 (0 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Norway

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W
1/1
W
0/1
D
0/1
L
Goals scored/match 4.00
Goals conceded/match 1.00
Both teams to score 100%
Over 2.5 goals 100%
  • 2026-06-16 Iraq 1-4 Norway

⚽ Top scorer : Erling Haaland (2)

Recent record for Norway: 1W-0D-0L over the last 6 matches. 4.00 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.00 conceded. BTTS observed at 100%, Over 2.5 at 100%.

Senegal

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

L
0/1
W
0/1
D
1/1
L
Goals scored/match 1.00
Goals conceded/match 3.00
Both teams to score 100%
Over 2.5 goals 100%
  • 2026-06-16 France 3-1 Senegal

Recent record for Senegal: 0W-0D-1L over the last 6 matches. 1.00 goal(s) scored on average vs 3.00 conceded. BTTS observed at 100%, Over 2.5 at 100%.

Our analysis

Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (3 pts vs 0 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (1.16 vs 1.34). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited

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to asymmetric matches, returns a 29.8% probability of a Norway win.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 29.8% Norway win, 32.3% draw, 37.8% Senegal win.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • Norway sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 3 pts.
  • Senegal is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (3, 0 pts).
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Senegal's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of Senegal's recent matches.
  • Norway relies on Erling Haaland (2) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.

Our verdict

Our AI's verdict: Senegal has a 37.8% chance of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1. The Over 2.5 (46%) and BTTS (51%) probabilities suggest an open match.

Frequently asked questions

When is Norway vs Senegal played? +

The Norway - Senegal match is scheduled for mardi juin 23, 2026 at 00:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Norway and Senegal? +

Our AI Predictor picks Senegal as the favorite with a 37.8% win probability. Full odds: 29.8% for Norway, 32.3% draw, 37.8% for Senegal.

What is the most likely score for Norway vs Senegal? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.16 for Norway and 1.34 for Senegal.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 46% for this Norway - Senegal fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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