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FIFA World Cup · Matchday 2

Recap: New Zealand vs Egypt

Monday June 22, 2026 01:00 Match finished

Final score

1 3

Match verdict: New Zealand 1-3 Egypt. Talacote's AI Predictor had projected a 0-1 scoreline — post-match analysis below.

Our AI Predictor places New Zealand in the underdog role against Egypt (17.6% win probability). For bettors, this kind of long away line can be worth a look — assuming a confirmed value-bet calculation. Details below.

New Zealand (1 in the FIFA World Cup, 1 pts) faces this match as a benchmark test on home soil. Egypt (4, 1 pts) needs to confirm its standing to avoid letting the gap widen down the stretch.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for New Zealand: Elijah Just (3)
  • 🎯 Key scorer for Egypt: Emam Ashour (2)
  • 📊 Tight standings: New Zealand (1th) and Egypt (4th) within 0 pts
  • ⚽ Egypt scores heavily: 2.5 goals/match average over last 6
  • 🎯 Both teams scored in 100% of New Zealand's recent matches
  • 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of New Zealand's recent matches

AI Predictor Forecast

New Zealand wins
17.6%
Draw
29.5%
Egypt wins
52.8%
Most likely score
0-1
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Both teams to score
46%
Expected goals (xG)
0.84 - 1.66

💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction

Our AI said: Egypt (52.8%, Odds 1.99)

✅ Correct prediction

Stake Total return Net profit
10 $ 19.90 $ +9.90 $
50 $ 99.50 $ +49.50 $
100 $ 199.00 $ +99.00 $
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League standings

New Zealand
1 (1 pts)
Egypt
4 (1 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

New Zealand

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

D L L
0/3
W
1/3
D
2/3
L
Goals scored/match 1.33
Goals conceded/match 3.33
Both teams to score 100%
Over 2.5 goals 100%
  • 2026-06-16 Iran 2-2 New Zealand
  • 2026-06-22 New Zealand 1-3 Egypt
  • 2026-06-27 New Zealand 1-5 Belgium

⚽ Top scorer : Elijah Just (3)

Recent record for New Zealand: 0W-1D-2L over the last 6 matches. 1.33 goal(s) scored on average vs 3.33 conceded. BTTS observed at 100%, Over 2.5 at 100%.

Egypt

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

D W D W
2/4
W
2/4
D
0/4
L
Goals scored/match 2.50
Goals conceded/match 1.50
Both teams to score 100%
Over 2.5 goals 50%
  • 2026-06-15 Belgium 1-1 Egypt
  • 2026-06-22 New Zealand 1-3 Egypt
  • 2026-06-27 Egypt 1-1 Iran
  • 2026-07-03 Australia 3-5 Egypt

⚽ Top scorer : Emam Ashour (2)

Recent record for Egypt: 2W-2D-0L over the last 6 matches. 2.50 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.50 conceded. BTTS observed at 100%, Over 2.5 at 50%.

⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)

DateMatchCompetition
2026-06-22 New Zealand 1-3 EgyptFIFA World Cup

Our analysis

Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (1 pts vs 1 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (0.84 vs 1.66). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited

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to asymmetric matches, returns a 17.6% probability of a New Zealand win.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 17.6% New Zealand win, 29.5% draw, 52.8% Egypt win.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • New Zealand sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 1 pts.
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of New Zealand's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of New Zealand's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of Egypt's recent matches.
  • New Zealand relies on Elijah Just (3) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
  • Egypt relies on Emam Ashour (2) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.

Our verdict

In short, Egypt stands as our algorithm's favourite at 52.8%. The modelled scoreline sits around 0-1, and the Over 2.5 (45%) and BTTS (46%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.

Frequently asked questions

When is New Zealand vs Egypt played? +

The New Zealand - Egypt match is scheduled for lundi juin 22, 2026 at 01:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between New Zealand and Egypt? +

Our AI Predictor picks Egypt as the favorite with a 52.8% win probability. Full odds: 17.6% for New Zealand, 29.5% draw, 52.8% for Egypt.

What is the most likely score for New Zealand vs Egypt? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 0-1, with expected goals (xG) of 0.84 for New Zealand and 1.66 for Egypt.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 45% for this New Zealand - Egypt fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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