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FIFA World Cup · Matchday 1

Recap: Netherlands vs Japan

Sunday June 14, 2026 20:00 Match finished

Final score

2 2

The Netherlands - Japan match ended -. Our AI prediction gave 46.8% for a Netherlands win, 31.0% for a draw, and 22.1% for Japan.

Find our detailed analysis of Netherlands - Japan, kicking off on dimanche juin 14, 2026. AI prediction, compared stats, recent form — everything you need before kick-off.

Netherlands (rank 2, 0 pts) is looking to string together strong results against Japan (rank 3, 0 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this FIFA World Cup fixture.

Key takeaways

  • 📊 Tight standings: Netherlands (2th) and Japan (3th) within 0 pts
  • 🗓️ Matchday 1, FIFA World Cup

AI Predictor Forecast

Netherlands wins
46.8%
Draw
31.0%
Japan wins
22.1%
Most likely score
1-0
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams to score
49%
Expected goals (xG)
1.53 - 0.97

💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction

Our AI said: Netherlands (46.8%, Odds 2.25)

❌ Missed prediction

Losing bet.

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League standings

Netherlands
1 (0 pts)
Japan
1 (0 pts)

Our analysis

Statistically, Netherlands (2 place, 0 pts) hosts Japan (3 place, 0 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Netherlands and – for Japan) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.53 for Netherlands versus 0.97 for Japan, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-0.

How our AI reaches this prediction

The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 46.8% / 31.0% / 22.1% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0.

Our verdict

Final prediction: edge to Netherlands (46.8% win probability) with a 1-0 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 49%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.

Frequently asked questions

When is Netherlands vs Japan played? +

The Netherlands - Japan match is scheduled for dimanche juin 14, 2026 at 20:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Netherlands and Japan? +

Our AI Predictor picks Netherlands as the favorite with a 46.8% win probability. Full odds: 46.8% for Netherlands, 31.0% draw, 22.1% for Japan.

What is the most likely score for Netherlands vs Japan? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.53 for Netherlands and 0.97 for Japan.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 46% for this Netherlands - Japan fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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