Skip to content
Talacote.com
Statistical prediction — not a guaranteed-win system. Probabilities computed via Poisson + ELO + Dixon-Coles on public data.  ·  See methodology  ·  Responsible Gambling

Ligue 1 · Matchday 7

Prediction: Lille OSC vs Stade Brestois 29

Saturday October 17, 2026 18:45

Lille OSC hosts Stade Brestois 29 this samedi at 18:45 in the Ligue 1. According to our AI, Lille OSC approaches this match as the statistical favorite.

Lille OSC (rank 4, 10 pts) is looking to string together strong results against Stade Brestois 29 (rank 9, 5 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this Ligue 1 fixture.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for Lille OSC: Tiago Santos (2)
  • 🎯 Key scorer for Stade Brestois 29: Kamory Doumbia (4)
  • 🗓️ Matchday 7, Ligue 1

AI Predictor Forecast

Lille wins
52.3%
Draw
27.8%
Brest wins
20.0%
Most likely score
1-1
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams to score
54%
Expected goals (xG)
1.84 - 1.05

Simulate your bet on this match

$

Pick your bet

Free preview
This prediction uses only 1 of 3 AI algorithms — about 33% of the computing power. Premium activates all 3 (Poisson + ELO + Dixon-Coles) for far sharper predictions.
If you win, you walk away with
Net profit :

League standings

Lille OSC
4 (10 pts)
Stade Brestois 29
11 (5 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Lille OSC

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W D W L W
3/5
W
1/5
D
1/5
L
Goals scored/match 1.80
Goals conceded/match 1.00
Both teams to score 40%
Over 2.5 goals 40%
  • 2026-08-23 Angers SCO 0-2 Lille OSC
  • 2026-08-28 Lille OSC 2-2 Paris Saint-Germain FC
  • 2026-09-03 Toulouse FC 0-1 Lille OSC
  • 2026-09-08 Lille OSC 2-3 Real Betis Balompié
  • 2026-09-13 Lille OSC 2-0 ES Troyes AC

⚽ Top scorer : Tiago Santos (2)

Lille OSC arrives with a 3W/1D/1L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.80 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.00. Over 2.5 goals at 40%, BTTS at 40%.

Stade Brestois 29

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

D D W L
1/4
W
2/4
D
1/4
L
Goals scored/match 1.50
Goals conceded/match 1.50
Both teams to score 75%
Over 2.5 goals 75%
  • 2026-08-22 Le Mans FC 2-2 Stade Brestois 29
  • 2026-08-29 Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Toulouse FC
  • 2026-09-05 Le Havre AC 1-2 Stade Brestois 29
  • 2026-09-13 Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint-Germain FC

⚽ Top scorer : Kamory Doumbia (4)

Stade Brestois 29 arrives with a 1W/2D/1L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.50 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.50. Over 2.5 goals at 75%, BTTS at 75%.

⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)

DateMatchCompetition
2026-02-14 Lille OSC 1-1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
2025-08-17 Stade Brestois 29 3-3 Lille OSCLigue 1
2025-05-10 Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lille OSCLigue 1
2024-12-06 Lille OSC 3-1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
2024-03-17 Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Lille OSCLigue 1

Our analysis

Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (10 pts vs 5 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (1.87 vs 0.95). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited

Full analysis, AI prediction, conclusion and simulator reserved for Premium members.
Unlock Monthly · $0.99/mo

to asymmetric matches, returns a 55.1% probability of a Lille OSC win.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 55.1% Lille win, 27.3% draw, 17.6% Brest win.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 75% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 75% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches.
  • Lille OSC relies on Tiago Santos (2) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
  • Stade Brestois 29 relies on Kamory Doumbia (4) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.

Our verdict

In short, Lille OSC stands as our algorithm's favourite at 55.1%. The modelled scoreline sits around 1-0, and the Over 2.5 (53%) and BTTS (52%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.

Frequently asked questions

When is Lille OSC vs Stade Brestois 29 played? +

The Lille OSC - Stade Brestois 29 match is scheduled for samedi octobre 17, 2026 at 18:45 in the Ligue 1.

Who is the favorite between Lille OSC and Stade Brestois 29? +

Our AI Predictor picks Lille OSC as the favorite with a 55.1% win probability. Full odds: 55.1% for Lille, 27.3% draw, 17.6% for Brest.

What is the most likely score for Lille OSC vs Stade Brestois 29? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.87 for Lille OSC and 0.95 for Stade Brestois 29.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 53% for this Lille OSC - Stade Brestois 29 fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

Full access right now

Scroll to Top