Ligue 1 · Matchday 9
Prediction: Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC
Friday, 30 October 2026 18:00 UK time
Our AI makes Paris Saint-Germain FC the favourite for Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC, with a 42.1% win probability. Kick-off: Friday, 30 October 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Find our detailed analysis of Le Havre AC - Paris Saint-Germain FC, kicking off on Friday, 30 October 2026. AI prediction, compared stats, recent form — everything you need before kick-off.
For Le Havre AC (2 pts on the board, 18 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Paris Saint-Germain FC (11 pts, 6) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Le Havre AC: Mbwana Samatta (2)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Paris Saint-Germain FC: Ferrán Torres (4)
- 📊 League gap: Paris Saint-Germain FC (6th) vs Le Havre AC (18th)
- ⚽ Paris Saint-Germain FC scores heavily: 2.33 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 9, Ligue 1
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Le Havre AC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-23
- 2026-08-29
- 2026-09-05
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
⚽ Top scorer : Mbwana Samatta (2)
Le Havre AC form: 0 wins, 2 draw(s), and 3 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (0.80) and defensive average (1.40) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 40%.
Paris Saint-Germain FC
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-23
- 2026-08-28
- 2026-09-04
- 2026-09-09
- 2026-09-13
- 2026-09-20
⚽ Top scorer : Ferrán Torres (4)
Paris Saint-Germain FC form: 3 wins, 2 draw(s), and 1 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (2.33) and defensive average (1.33) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 83%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Le Havre AC 0-1 Paris Saint-Germain FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 3-0 Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 2-1 Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-08-16 | Le Havre AC 1-4 Paris Saint-Germain FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 3-3 Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 |
Our analysis
Statistically, Le Havre AC (18 place, 2 pts) hosts Paris Saint-Germain FC (6 place, 11 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Le Havre AC and – for Paris Saint-Germain FC) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation.
With an xG of 1.15 for Le Havre AC versus 1.50 for Paris Saint-Germain FC, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 26.6% / 31.3% / 42.1% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 83% of Paris Saint-Germain FC's recent matches.
- ▸ Le Havre AC relies on Mbwana Samatta (2) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
- ▸ Paris Saint-Germain FC relies on Ferrán Torres (4) as the Ligue 1 top scorer.
Our verdict
In short, Paris Saint-Germain FC stands as our algorithm's favourite at 42.1%. The modelled scoreline sits around 1-1, and the Over 2.5 (50%) and BTTS (54%) indicators round out the picture for value bettors.
Frequently asked questions
When is Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC played? +
The Le Havre AC - Paris Saint-Germain FC match is scheduled for Friday, 30 October 2026 at 18:00 UK time in the Ligue 1.
Who is the favorite between Le Havre AC and Paris Saint-Germain FC? +
Our AI Predictor picks Paris Saint-Germain FC as the favorite with a 42.1% win probability. Full odds: 26.6% for Le Havre, 31.3% draw, 42.1% for PSG.
What is the most likely score for Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.15 for Le Havre AC and 1.50 for Paris Saint-Germain FC.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 50% for this Le Havre AC - Paris Saint-Germain FC fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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