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FIFA World Cup · Matchday 1

Recap: Iraq vs Norway

Tuesday June 16, 2026 22:00 Match finished

Final score

1 4

Final score Iraq 1-4 Norway. The AI Predictor had projected 0-1, with Over 2.5 at 45% and BTTS at 47%. Post-match analysis and AI lessons below.

Tough mission for Iraq against Norway (19.6% vs 50.1% per our AI). Home advantage weighs little against the form and table deficit. The match stays open, but the stats lean clearly.

For Iraq (1), hosting Norway (1) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With Norway a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for Norway: Erling Haaland (4)
  • 📊 Tight standings: Iraq (1th) and Norway (1th) within 0 pts
  • ⚽ Norway scores heavily: 2.67 goals/match average over last 6
  • 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of Iraq's recent matches
  • 🗓️ Matchday 1, FIFA World Cup

AI Predictor Forecast

Iraq wins
19.6%
Draw
30.3%
Norway wins
50.1%
Most likely score
0-1
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Both teams to score
47%
Expected goals (xG)
0.90 - 1.60

💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction

Our AI said: Norway (50.1%, Odds 2.10)

✅ Correct prediction

Stake Total return Net profit
10 $ 21.00 $ +11.00 $
50 $ 105.00 $ +55.00 $
100 $ 210.00 $ +110.00 $
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League standings

Iraq
1 (0 pts)
Norway
1 (0 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Iraq

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

L L L
0/3
W
0/3
D
3/3
L
Goals scored/match 0.33
Goals conceded/match 4.00
Both teams to score 33%
Over 2.5 goals 100%
  • 2026-06-16 Iraq 1-4 Norway
  • 2026-06-22 France 3-0 Iraq
  • 2026-06-26 Senegal 5-0 Iraq

Across its last 6 outings, Iraq has 0 wins, 0 draw(s), and 3 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 0.33 goal(s)/match, defensive at 4.00. Both teams have scored in 33% of recent games.

Norway

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W W L
2/3
W
0/3
D
1/3
L
Goals scored/match 2.67
Goals conceded/match 2.33
Both teams to score 100%
Over 2.5 goals 100%
  • 2026-06-16 Iraq 1-4 Norway
  • 2026-06-23 Norway 3-2 Senegal
  • 2026-06-26 Norway 1-4 France

⚽ Top scorer : Erling Haaland (4)

Across its last 6 outings, Norway has 2 wins, 0 draw(s), and 1 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.67 goal(s)/match, defensive at 2.33. Both teams have scored in 100% of recent games.

⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)

DateMatchCompetition
2026-06-16 Iraq 1-4 NorwayFIFA World Cup

Our analysis

The table gap between Iraq (1 place) and Norway (1 place) partly explains our AI's confidence in Norway. Expected goals are 0.90 for Iraq and 1.60 for Norway, steering the model toward a win for the dominant side. Recent history backs this trend.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 19.6% Iraq win, 30.3% draw, 50.1% Norway win.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • Iraq sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 0 pts.
  • Norway sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 0 pts.
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Iraq's recent matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of Norway's recent matches.
  • Norway relies on Erling Haaland (4) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.

Our verdict

Our AI's verdict: Norway has a 50.1% chance of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 0-1. The Over 2.5 (45%) and BTTS (47%) probabilities suggest an open match.

Frequently asked questions

When is Iraq vs Norway played? +

The Iraq - Norway match is scheduled for mardi juin 16, 2026 at 22:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Iraq and Norway? +

Our AI Predictor picks Norway as the favorite with a 50.1% win probability. Full odds: 19.6% for Iraq, 30.3% draw, 50.1% for Norway.

What is the most likely score for Iraq vs Norway? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 0-1, with expected goals (xG) of 0.90 for Iraq and 1.60 for Norway.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 45% for this Iraq - Norway fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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