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FIFA World Cup · Matchday 1

Recap: Iran vs New Zealand

Tuesday June 16, 2026 01:00 Match finished

Final score

2 2

Match over: Iran 2-2 New Zealand. Our initial AI prediction had Iran favored at 53.4%. Compare reality with probabilities to calibrate your read on upcoming FIFA World Cup matches.

Iran hosts New Zealand this mardi at 01:00 in the FIFA World Cup. According to our AI, Iran approaches this match as the statistical favorite.

For Iran (0 pts on the board, 1 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. New Zealand (0 pts, 1) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for Iran: Ramin Rezaeian (2)
  • 🎯 Key scorer for New Zealand: Elijah Just (3)
  • 📊 Tight standings: Iran (1th) and New Zealand (1th) within 0 pts
  • 🗓️ Matchday 1, FIFA World Cup

AI Predictor Forecast

Iran wins
53.4%
Draw
29.4%
New Zealand wins
17.3%
Most likely score
1-0
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Both teams to score
46%
Expected goals (xG)
1.67 - 0.83

💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction

Our AI said: Iran (53.4%, Odds 1.97)

❌ Missed prediction

Losing bet.

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League standings

Iran
1 (0 pts)
New Zealand
1 (0 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Iran

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

D D D
0/3
W
3/3
D
0/3
L
Goals scored/match 1.00
Goals conceded/match 1.00
Both teams to score 67%
Over 2.5 goals 33%
  • 2026-06-16 Iran 2-2 New Zealand
  • 2026-06-21 Belgium 0-0 Iran
  • 2026-06-27 Egypt 1-1 Iran

⚽ Top scorer : Ramin Rezaeian (2)

Iran form: 0 wins, 3 draw(s), and 0 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.00) and defensive average (1.00) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 33%.

New Zealand

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

D L L
0/3
W
1/3
D
2/3
L
Goals scored/match 1.33
Goals conceded/match 3.33
Both teams to score 100%
Over 2.5 goals 100%
  • 2026-06-16 Iran 2-2 New Zealand
  • 2026-06-22 New Zealand 1-3 Egypt
  • 2026-06-27 New Zealand 1-5 Belgium

⚽ Top scorer : Elijah Just (3)

New Zealand form: 0 wins, 1 draw(s), and 2 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.33) and defensive average (3.33) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 100%.

⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)

DateMatchCompetition
2026-06-16 Iran 2-2 New ZealandFIFA World Cup

Our analysis

Historical data and current form converge for this match. Iran (form: –) meets New Zealand (form: –). The ELO algorithm adjusts implied odds and surfaces an Over 2.5 goals probability of 45% and a BT

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TS of 46% — interesting markets for value bettors.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 53.4% Iran win, 29.4% draw, 17.3% New Zealand win.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • Iran sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 0 pts.
  • New Zealand sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 0 pts.
  • Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of New Zealand's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 67% of Iran's recent matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of New Zealand's recent matches.
  • Iran relies on Ramin Rezaeian (2) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
  • New Zealand relies on Elijah Just (3) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.

Our verdict

Bottom line: our models converge on a Iran win (53.4%) with a typical scoreline of 1-0. Worth noting the 45% Over 2.5 reading and the 46% BTTS — two markets to study.

Frequently asked questions

When is Iran vs New Zealand played? +

The Iran - New Zealand match is scheduled for mardi juin 16, 2026 at 01:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Iran and New Zealand? +

Our AI Predictor picks Iran as the favorite with a 53.4% win probability. Full odds: 53.4% for Iran, 29.4% draw, 17.3% for New Zealand.

What is the most likely score for Iran vs New Zealand? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.67 for Iran and 0.83 for New Zealand.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 45% for this Iran - New Zealand fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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