FIFA World Cup
Recap: France vs Spain
Tuesday July 14, 2026 19:00 Match finished
Final score
0 – 2
Match over: France - Spain. Our initial AI prediction had France favored at 52.6%. Compare reality with probabilities to calibrate your read on upcoming FIFA World Cup matches.
The clash between France and Spain promises plenty of drama in the FIFA World Cup. Our AI Predictor analyzed this mardi juillet 14, 2026 fixture and favors France with a 52.6% win probability.
France (rank 1, 9 pts) is looking to string together strong results against Spain (rank 1, 7 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this FIFA World Cup fixture.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for France: Kylian Mbappé (8)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Spain: Mikel Oyarzabal (4)
- 📊 Tight standings: France (1th) and Spain (1th) within 2 pts
- ⚽ France scores heavily: 2.67 goals/match average over last 6
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: France (52.6%, Odds 2.00)
❌ Missed prediction
Losing bet.
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Recent form details (last 6 matches)
France
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-16
- 2026-06-22
- 2026-06-26
- 2026-06-30
- 2026-07-04
- 2026-07-09
⚽ Top scorer : Kylian Mbappé (8)
France arrives with a 6W/0D/0L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 2.67 goal(s) on average and conceding 0.33. Over 2.5 goals at 67%, BTTS at 33%.
Spain
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-15
- 2026-06-21
- 2026-06-27
- 2026-07-02
- 2026-07-06
- 2026-07-10
⚽ Top scorer : Mikel Oyarzabal (4)
Spain arrives with a 5W/1D/0L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 1.83 goal(s) on average and conceding 0.17. Over 2.5 goals at 50%, BTTS at 17%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-09 | Spain 2-1 France | European Championship |
Our analysis
The table gap between France (1 place) and Spain (1 place) partly explains our AI's confidence in France. Expected goals are 1.92 for France and 1.11 for Spain, steering the model toward a win for the dominant side. Recent history backs this trend.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 52.6% France win, 27.1% draw, 20.4% Spain win.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ France sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 9 pts.
- ▸ Spain sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 7 pts.
- ▸ France is on a 6-match winning streak.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of France's recent matches.
- ▸ France relies on Kylian Mbappé (8) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
- ▸ Spain relies on Mikel Oyarzabal (4) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
Our verdict
Bottom line: our models converge on a France win (52.6%) with a typical scoreline of 1-1. Worth noting the 58% Over 2.5 reading and the 57% BTTS — two markets to study.
Frequently asked questions
When is France vs Spain played? +
The France - Spain match is scheduled for mardi juillet 14, 2026 at 19:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between France and Spain? +
Our AI Predictor picks France as the favorite with a 52.6% win probability. Full odds: 52.6% for France, 27.1% draw, 20.4% for Spain.
What is the most likely score for France vs Spain? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.92 for France and 1.11 for Spain.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 58% for this France - Spain fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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