La Liga · Matchday 6
Prediction: Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia CF
Tuesday September 15, 2026 18:00
Uncertain match expected on mercredi septembre 16, 2026 between Deportivo Alavés and Valencia CF. Our algorithm returns very close probabilities (40.0% / 30.0% / 30.0%), reflecting an evenly-matched duel on paper and in recent form.
For Deportivo Alavés (1), hosting Valencia CF (8) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With Deportivo Alavés a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Deportivo Alavés: Nahuel Tenaglia (1)
- ⚽ Deportivo Alavés scores heavily: 3 goals/match average over last 6
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 100% of Deportivo Alavés's recent matches
- 🗓️ Matchday 6, La Liga
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Deportivo Alavés
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-15
⚽ Top scorer : Nahuel Tenaglia (1)
Across its last 6 outings, Deportivo Alavés has 1 wins, 0 draw(s), and 0 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 3.00 goal(s)/match, defensive at 0.00. Both teams have scored in 0% of recent games.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Valencia CF 3-2 Deportivo Alavés | Primera Division |
| 2025-10-20 | Deportivo Alavés 0-0 Valencia CF | Primera Division |
| 2025-05-14 | Deportivo Alavés 1-0 Valencia CF | Primera Division |
| 2024-12-22 | Valencia CF 2-2 Deportivo Alavés | Primera Division |
Our analysis
Statistically, Deportivo Alavés (1 place, 3 pts) hosts Valencia CF (8 place, 0 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Deportivo Alavés and – for Valencia CF) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.40 for Deportivo Alavés versus 1.20 for Valencia CF, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-1.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The weighting engine combines offensive/defensive xG (35% weight), 5-match form dynamics (28%), standings and points (20%), head-to-head (12%), and home advantage (5%). Final 1X2 result lands at 40.0% / 30.0% / 30.0%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Deportivo Alavés is in the top 3 of La Liga (3, 7 pts).
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Deportivo Alavés's recent matches.
- ▸ Deportivo Alavés relies on Nahuel Tenaglia (1) as the La Liga top scorer.
Our verdict
Our AI's verdict: Deportivo Alavés has a 40.0% chance of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1. The Over 2.5 (55%) and BTTS (50%) probabilities suggest an open match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia CF played? +
The Deportivo Alavés - Valencia CF match is scheduled for mercredi septembre 16, 2026 at 00:00 in the La Liga.
Who is the favorite between Deportivo Alavés and Valencia CF? +
Our AI Predictor picks Deportivo Alavés as the favorite with a 40.0% win probability. Full odds: 40.0% for Alavés, 30.0% draw, 30.0% for Valencia.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia CF? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.40 for Deportivo Alavés and 1.20 for Valencia CF.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 55% for this Deportivo Alavés - Valencia CF fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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