La Liga · Matchday 38
Prediction: Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Saturday May 23, 2026 19:00
Balanced fixture for Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano de Madrid on dimanche mai 24, 2026. No clear AI favorite: 40.2% home, 26.4% draw, 33.4% away. Statistical details settle the duel on the margins.
For Deportivo Alavés (37 pts on the board, 18 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (42 pts, 11) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Deportivo Alavés: Toni Martínez (12)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Jorge de Frutos (10)
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 100% of Deportivo Alavés's recent matches
- 📈 Over 2.5 goals in 83% of Deportivo Alavés's recent matches
- 🗓️ Matchday 38, La Liga
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Deportivo Alavés
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-04-05
- 2026-04-11
- 2026-04-21
- 2026-04-25
- 2026-05-02
- 2026-05-09
⚽ Top scorer : Toni Martínez (12)
Deportivo Alavés form: 1 wins, 3 draw(s), and 2 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.83) and defensive average (2.17) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 83%.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-03-22
- 2026-04-03
- 2026-04-12
- 2026-04-23
- 2026-04-26
- 2026-05-03
⚽ Top scorer : Jorge de Frutos (10)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid form: 3 wins, 1 draw(s), and 2 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (1.17) and defensive average (1.17) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 33%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-0 Deportivo Alavés | Primera Division |
| 2025-03-29 | Deportivo Alavés 0-2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Primera Division |
| 2024-10-26 | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-0 Deportivo Alavés | Primera Division |
| 2024-03-10 | Deportivo Alavés 1-0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Primera Division |
Our analysis
Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (37 pts vs 42 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (1.37 vs 1.22). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited to asymmetric matches, returns a 40.2% probability of a Deportivo Alavés win.
How our AI reaches this prediction
The calculation relies on average goals scored/conceded, 5-match form, and league position. Result: 40.2% / 26.4% / 33.4% for 1X2, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 83% of Deportivo Alavés's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 100% of Deportivo Alavés's recent matches.
- ▸ Deportivo Alavés relies on Toni Martínez (12) as the La Liga top scorer.
- ▸ Rayo Vallecano de Madrid relies on Jorge de Frutos (10) as the La Liga top scorer.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to Deportivo Alavés (40.2% win probability) with a 1-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 52%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid played? +
The Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano de Madrid match is scheduled for dimanche mai 24, 2026 at 00:00 in the La Liga.
Who is the favorite between Deportivo Alavés and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? +
Our AI Predictor picks Deportivo Alavés as the favorite with a 40.2% win probability. Full odds: 40.2% for Alavés, 26.4% draw, 33.4% for Rayo Vallecano.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-1, with expected goals (xG) of 1.37 for Deportivo Alavés and 1.22 for Rayo Vallecano de Madrid.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 48% for this Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano de Madrid fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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