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FIFA World Cup

Prediction: Colombia vs Ghana

Saturday July 4, 2026 01:30

Colombia hosts Ghana this samedi at 01:30 in the FIFA World Cup. According to our AI, Colombia approaches this match as the statistical favorite.

Colombia (1 in the FIFA World Cup, 7 pts) faces this match as a benchmark test on home soil. Ghana (3, 4 pts) needs to confirm its standing to avoid letting the gap widen down the stretch.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for Colombia: Daniel Muñoz (2)
  • 📊 Tight standings: Colombia (1th) and Ghana (3th) within 3 pts

AI Predictor Forecast

Colombia wins
48.1%
Draw
38.0%
Ghana wins
13.9%
Most likely score
1-0
Over 2.5 goals
22%
Both teams to score
26%
Expected goals (xG)
1.15 - 0.48

Bookmaker odds

Real 1X2 odds collected from the main bookmakers for this match. The best odds for each outcome are highlighted.

Value bet detected
Draw @ 4.10 — estimated +55.7% value according to our AI.
BookmakerColombiaDrawGhana
1xBet 1.56 3.99 8.10
Matchbook 1.56 4.10 8.40
Betfair 1.56 4.10 8.40
Coolbet 1.55 4.05 7.60
Nordic Bet 1.55 3.85 7.50
Betsson 1.55 3.85 7.50
Pinnacle 1.54 3.99 7.33
Unibet (NL) 1.53 3.85 8.50
Best odds1.564.108.50

Market implied probability: 63% / 24% / 13%.

Odds provided by the-odds-api.com · 30/06 08:30

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League standings

Colombia
1 (7 pts)
Ghana
3 (4 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Colombia

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W W D
2/3
W
1/3
D
0/3
L
Goals scored/match 1.33
Goals conceded/match 0.33
Both teams to score 33%
Over 2.5 goals 33%
  • 2026-06-18 Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia
  • 2026-06-24 Colombia 1-0 Congo DR
  • 2026-06-27 Colombia 0-0 Portugal

⚽ Top scorer : Daniel Muñoz (2)

Recent record for Colombia: 2W-1D-0L over the last 6 matches. 1.33 goal(s) scored on average vs 0.33 conceded. BTTS observed at 33%, Over 2.5 at 33%.

Ghana

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

W D L
1/3
W
1/3
D
1/3
L
Goals scored/match 0.67
Goals conceded/match 0.67
Both teams to score 33%
Over 2.5 goals 33%
  • 2026-06-17 Ghana 1-0 Panama
  • 2026-06-23 England 0-0 Ghana
  • 2026-06-27 Croatia 2-1 Ghana

Recent record for Ghana: 1W-1D-1L over the last 6 matches. 0.67 goal(s) scored on average vs 0.67 conceded. BTTS observed at 33%, Over 2.5 at 33%.

Our analysis

Our analysis cross-references several indicators: standings (7 pts vs 4 pts), current dynamics (form – vs –), and computed xG (1.15 vs 0.48). The Dixon-Coles model, especially suited

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to asymmetric matches, returns a 48.1% probability of a Colombia win.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 48.1% Colombia win, 38.0% draw, 13.9% Ghana win.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • Colombia sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 7 pts.
  • Ghana is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (3, 4 pts).
  • Colombia relies on Daniel Muñoz (2) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.

Our verdict

Bottom line: our models converge on a Colombia win (48.1%) with a typical scoreline of 1-0. Worth noting the 22% Over 2.5 reading and the 26% BTTS — two markets to study.

Frequently asked questions

When is Colombia vs Ghana played? +

The Colombia - Ghana match is scheduled for samedi juillet 4, 2026 at 01:30 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Colombia and Ghana? +

Our AI Predictor picks Colombia as the favorite with a 48.1% win probability. Full odds: 48.1% for Colombia, 38.0% draw, 13.9% for Ghana.

What is the most likely score for Colombia vs Ghana? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.15 for Colombia and 0.48 for Ghana.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 22% for this Colombia - Ghana fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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