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FIFA World Cup

Recap: Canada vs Morocco

Saturday July 4, 2026 17:00 Match finished

Final score

0 3

The Canada - Morocco match ended 0-3. Our AI prediction gave 49.9% for a Canada win, 25.8% for a draw, and 24.4% for Morocco.

Our AI Predictor examined the FIFA World Cup clash Canada vs Morocco. Verdict: Canada carries a 49.9% chance of winning. Full breakdown below.

Canada (2 in the FIFA World Cup, 4 pts) faces this match as a benchmark test on home soil. Morocco (2, 7 pts) needs to confirm its standing to avoid letting the gap widen down the stretch.

Key takeaways

  • 🎯 Key scorer for Canada: Jonathan David (3)
  • 🎯 Key scorer for Morocco: Ismael Saibari (3)
  • 📊 Tight standings: Canada (2th) and Morocco (2th) within 3 pts
  • ⚽ Morocco scores heavily: 2.17 goals/match average over last 6

AI Predictor Forecast

Canada wins
49.9%
Draw
25.8%
Morocco wins
24.4%
Most likely score
2-1
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Both teams to score
66%
Expected goals (xG)
2.11 - 1.43

💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction

Our AI said: Canada (49.9%, Odds 2.11)

❌ Missed prediction

Losing bet.

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League standings

Canada
2 (4 pts)
Morocco
2 (7 pts)

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

Canada

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

D W L W L
2/5
W
1/5
D
2/5
L
Goals scored/match 1.80
Goals conceded/match 1.20
Both teams to score 40%
Over 2.5 goals 60%
  • 2026-06-12 Canada 1-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina
  • 2026-06-18 Canada 6-0 Qatar
  • 2026-06-24 Switzerland 2-1 Canada
  • 2026-06-28 South Africa 0-1 Canada
  • 2026-07-04 Canada 0-3 Morocco

⚽ Top scorer : Jonathan David (3)

Recent record for Canada: 2W-1D-2L over the last 6 matches. 1.80 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.20 conceded. BTTS observed at 40%, Over 2.5 at 60%.

Morocco

Recent form details (last 6 matches)

D W W W W L
4/6
W
1/6
D
1/6
L
Goals scored/match 2.17
Goals conceded/match 1.33
Both teams to score 50%
Over 2.5 goals 50%
  • 2026-06-13 Brazil 1-1 Morocco
  • 2026-06-19 Scotland 0-1 Morocco
  • 2026-06-24 Morocco 4-2 Haiti
  • 2026-06-30 Netherlands 3-4 Morocco
  • 2026-07-04 Canada 0-3 Morocco
  • 2026-07-09 France 2-0 Morocco

⚽ Top scorer : Ismael Saibari (3)

Recent record for Morocco: 4W-1D-1L over the last 6 matches. 2.17 goal(s) scored on average vs 1.33 conceded. BTTS observed at 50%, Over 2.5 at 50%.

⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)

DateMatchCompetition
2026-07-04 Canada 0-3 MoroccoFIFA World Cup
2022-12-01 Canada 1-2 MoroccoFIFA World Cup

Our analysis

Statistically, Canada (2 place, 4 pts) hosts Morocco (2 place, 7 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for Canada and – for Morocco) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 2.11 for Canada versus 1.43 for Morocco, our Poisson model projects a final score around 2-1.

How our AI reaches this prediction

Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 49.9% Canada win, 25.8% draw, 24.4% Morocco win.

🎯 Key takeaways

  • Canada is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (2, 4 pts).
  • Morocco is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (2, 7 pts).
  • Canada relies on Jonathan David (3) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
  • Morocco relies on Ismael Saibari (3) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.

Our verdict

Final prediction: edge to Canada (49.9% win probability) with a 2-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 66%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.

Frequently asked questions

When is Canada vs Morocco played? +

The Canada - Morocco match is scheduled for samedi juillet 4, 2026 at 17:00 in the FIFA World Cup.

Who is the favorite between Canada and Morocco? +

Our AI Predictor picks Canada as the favorite with a 49.9% win probability. Full odds: 49.9% for Canada, 25.8% draw, 24.4% for Morocco.

What is the most likely score for Canada vs Morocco? +

Our Poisson model projects a final score of 2-1, with expected goals (xG) of 2.11 for Canada and 1.43 for Morocco.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +

Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 68% for this Canada - Morocco fixture.

How does Talacote compute this prediction? +

Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.

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