FIFA World Cup
Recap: Belgium vs Senegal
Wednesday July 1, 2026 20:00 Match finished
Final score
3 – 2
The Belgium - Senegal match ended 3-2. Our AI prediction gave 50.4% for a Belgium win, 24.6% for a draw, and 24.9% for Senegal.
On mercredi juillet 1, 2026, Belgium and Senegal face off in the FIFA World Cup. Talacote's AI Predictor ran this match through Poisson, ELO, and Dixon-Coles models: our forecast gives Belgium a slight edge.
For Belgium (5 pts on the board, 1 place), it's about defending home turf and capitalising on the advantage. Senegal (3 pts, 3) has plenty at stake: a result here can reshape the top of the table.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for Belgium: Romelu Lukaku (3)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Senegal: Ismaïla Sarr (4)
- 📊 Tight standings: Belgium (1th) and Senegal (3th) within 2 pts
- ⚽ Belgium scores heavily: 2.33 goals/match average over last 6
- 🎯 Both teams scored in 83% of Belgium's recent matches
AI Predictor Forecast
💸 Replay: if you had followed our prediction
Our AI said: Belgium (50.4%, Odds 2.09)
✅ Correct prediction
| Stake | Total return | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| 10 $ | 20.90 $ | +10.90 $ |
| 50 $ | 104.50 $ | +54.50 $ |
| 100 $ | 209.00 $ | +109.00 $ |
League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
Belgium
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-15
- 2026-06-21
- 2026-06-27
- 2026-07-01
- 2026-07-07
- 2026-07-10
⚽ Top scorer : Romelu Lukaku (3)
Belgium form: 3 wins, 2 draw(s), and 1 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (2.33) and defensive average (1.17) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 67%.
Senegal
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-06-16
- 2026-06-23
- 2026-06-26
- 2026-07-01
⚽ Top scorer : Ismaïla Sarr (4)
Senegal form: 1 wins, 0 draw(s), and 3 losses in 6 matches. Offensive average (2.50) and defensive average (2.25) shed light on the current dynamic, with an Over 2.5 probability calculated at 100%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Belgium 3-2 Senegal | FIFA World Cup |
Our analysis
The table gap between Belgium (1 place) and Senegal (3 place) partly explains our AI's confidence in Belgium. Expected goals are 2.30 for Belgium and 1.58 for Senegal, steering the model toward a win for the dominant side. Recent history backs this trend.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Our AI combines three algorithms: Poisson (goal distribution), ELO (relative team strength), and Dixon-Coles (low-score adjustment). Resulting probabilities: 50.4% Belgium win, 24.6% draw, 24.9% Senegal win.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ Belgium sits at the top of FIFA World Cup with 5 pts.
- ▸ Senegal is in the top 3 of FIFA World Cup (3, 3 pts).
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Belgium's recent matches.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 100% of Senegal's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 83% of Belgium's recent matches.
- ▸ Both teams have scored in 75% of Senegal's recent matches.
- ▸ Belgium relies on Romelu Lukaku (3) as the FIFA World Cup top scorer.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to Belgium (50.4% win probability) with a 2-1 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 71%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is Belgium vs Senegal played? +
The Belgium - Senegal match is scheduled for mercredi juillet 1, 2026 at 20:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Who is the favorite between Belgium and Senegal? +
Our AI Predictor picks Belgium as the favorite with a 50.4% win probability. Full odds: 50.4% for Belgium, 24.6% draw, 24.9% for Senegal.
What is the most likely score for Belgium vs Senegal? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 2-1, with expected goals (xG) of 2.30 for Belgium and 1.58 for Senegal.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 73% for this Belgium - Senegal fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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