Serie A · Matchday 9
Prediction: AS Roma vs Cagliari Calcio
Tuesday October 27, 2026 19:45
The clash between AS Roma and Cagliari Calcio promises plenty of drama in the Serie A. Our AI Predictor analyzed this mardi octobre 27, 2026 fixture and favors AS Roma with a 59.0% win probability.
For AS Roma (1), hosting Cagliari Calcio (4) is a chance to make a statement before the season ends. With AS Roma a slight favourite per our AI, the match looks tight and pivotal for both sides.
Key takeaways
- 🎯 Key scorer for AS Roma: Donyell Malen (6)
- 🎯 Key scorer for Cagliari Calcio: Daniel Maldini (3)
- 📊 Tight standings: AS Roma (1th) and Cagliari Calcio (4th) within 1 pts
- ⚽ AS Roma scores heavily: 2.5 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 9, Serie A
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
AS Roma
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-24
- 2026-08-31
- 2026-09-05
- 2026-09-10
- 2026-09-14
- 2026-09-19
⚽ Top scorer : Donyell Malen (6)
Across its last 6 outings, AS Roma has 4 wins, 2 draw(s), and 0 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 2.50 goal(s)/match, defensive at 0.67. Both teams have scored in 50% of recent games.
Cagliari Calcio
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-22
- 2026-08-30
- 2026-09-07
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-19
⚽ Top scorer : Daniel Maldini (3)
Across its last 6 outings, Cagliari Calcio has 4 wins, 0 draw(s), and 1 defeat(s). Offensive output sits at 1.00 goal(s)/match, defensive at 0.40. Both teams have scored in 20% of recent games.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari Calcio | Serie A |
| 2025-12-07 | Cagliari Calcio 1-0 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 2025-03-16 | AS Roma 1-0 Cagliari Calcio | Serie A |
| 2024-08-18 | Cagliari Calcio 0-0 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-02-05 | AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari Calcio | Serie A |
Our analysis
The table gap between AS Roma (1 place) and Cagliari Calcio (4 place) partly explains our AI's confidence in AS Roma. Expected goals are 1.84 for Roma and 0.76 for Cagliari, steering the model toward a win for the dominant side. Recent history backs this trend.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 59.0% / 27.0% / 14.0%.
🎯 Key takeaways
- ▸ AS Roma sits at the top of Serie A with 13 pts.
- ▸ AS Roma is on a 3-match winning streak.
- ▸ Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of AS Roma's recent matches.
- ▸ AS Roma relies on Donyell Malen (6) as the Serie A top scorer.
- ▸ Cagliari Calcio relies on Daniel Maldini (3) as the Serie A top scorer.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to AS Roma (59.0% win probability) with a 1-0 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 45%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is AS Roma vs Cagliari Calcio played? +
The AS Roma - Cagliari Calcio match is scheduled for mardi octobre 27, 2026 at 19:45 in the Serie A.
Who is the favorite between AS Roma and Cagliari Calcio? +
Our AI Predictor picks AS Roma as the favorite with a 59.0% win probability. Full odds: 59.0% for Roma, 27.0% draw, 14.0% for Cagliari.
What is the most likely score for AS Roma vs Cagliari Calcio? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.84 for AS Roma and 0.76 for Cagliari Calcio.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 48% for this AS Roma - Cagliari Calcio fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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