Serie A · Matchday 9
Prediction: AC Milan vs Bologna FC 1909
Wednesday October 28, 2026 17:30
AI verdict is unambiguous for AC Milan - Bologna FC 1909: 61.4% home, 12.1% away. This kind of skewed line rarely interests the average bettor — but the statistical case is solid. Details below.
AC Milan (rank 5, 11 pts) is looking to string together strong results against Bologna FC 1909 (rank 18, 2 pts). Motivation and momentum will weigh as much as raw stats in this Serie A fixture.
Key takeaways
- 📊 League gap: AC Milan (5th) vs Bologna FC 1909 (18th)
- ⚽ AC Milan scores heavily: 2 goals/match average over last 6
- 🗓️ Matchday 9, Serie A
AI Predictor Forecast
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League standings
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
AC Milan
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-23
- 2026-08-28
- 2026-09-06
- 2026-09-12
- 2026-09-20
AC Milan arrives with a 3W/2D/0L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 2.00 goal(s) on average and conceding 0.80. Over 2.5 goals at 60%, BTTS at 60%.
Bologna FC 1909
Recent form details (last 6 matches)
- 2026-08-24
- 2026-08-31
- 2026-09-06
- 2026-09-13
- 2026-09-19
Bologna FC 1909 arrives with a 0W/2D/3L record over its last 6 matches, scoring 0.60 goal(s) on average and conceding 1.20. Over 2.5 goals at 20%, BTTS at 40%.
⚔️ Head-to-head (last 5 meetings)
| Date | Match | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Bologna FC 1909 0-3 AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-09-14 | AC Milan 1-0 Bologna FC 1909 | Serie A |
| 2025-05-09 | AC Milan 3-1 Bologna FC 1909 | Serie A |
| 2025-02-27 | Bologna FC 1909 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
Our analysis
Statistically, AC Milan (5 place, 11 pts) hosts Bologna FC 1909 (18 place, 2 pts). Both teams' recent form (– for AC Milan and – for Bologna FC 1909) weighs heavily in our AI's calculation. With an xG of 1.84 for AC Milan versus 0.67 for Bologna FC 1909, our Poisson model projects a final score around 1-0.
How our AI reaches this prediction
Concretely, the Poisson model estimates goal distribution from adjusted xG averages, ELO recalibrates per recent performance, and Dixon-Coles corrects low scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Triangulation produces the final forecast: 61.4% / 26.5% / 12.1%.
Our verdict
Final prediction: edge to AC Milan (61.4% win probability) with a 1-0 projection. The goals market (Over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 41%) remains the other interesting angle on this match.
Frequently asked questions
When is AC Milan vs Bologna FC 1909 played? +
The AC Milan - Bologna FC 1909 match is scheduled for mercredi octobre 28, 2026 at 17:30 in the Serie A.
Who is the favorite between AC Milan and Bologna FC 1909? +
Our AI Predictor picks AC Milan as the favorite with a 61.4% win probability. Full odds: 61.4% for Milan, 26.5% draw, 12.1% for Bologna.
What is the most likely score for AC Milan vs Bologna FC 1909? +
Our Poisson model projects a final score of 1-0, with expected goals (xG) of 1.84 for AC Milan and 0.67 for Bologna FC 1909.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in this match? +
Our AI estimates the Over 2.5 goals probability at 45% for this AC Milan - Bologna FC 1909 fixture.
How does Talacote compute this prediction? +
Our AI Predictor combines three algorithms: Poisson for goal distribution, ELO for relative team strength, and Dixon-Coles for low-score adjustment. The analysis cross-references form, standings, and historical data.
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